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Probability Scale Quantification of Fault Trees 1 in 10 Frequent Probable TOP CRASH AT CRASH Probability =0.001 or 1 in 1000 1 in 100 1
Probability Scale Quantification of Fault Trees 1 in 10 Frequent Probable TOP CRASH AT CRASH Probability =0.001 or 1 in 1000 1 in 100 1 in 1060 Occasional EVENT MAN ROAD If 6000 cars use the side road every year, JUNCTION then it is expected that 6-7 crashes per year 1 in 10000 Remote may occur 1 in 100000 Improbable AND I in 1 m Extremely Remote CAR ATMAIN SIDE ROAD ROAD CAR FAILS TO JUNCTION STOP P=0.01 OR P=0.131 SIDE ROAD SIDE ROAD CAR CAR DRIVER DRIVER COULD DID NOT STOP NOT STOP P=0.12 OR P-0.011 OR DRIVING DRIVER VISION ROAD TOO BRAKE TYKES TOO FAST TOO ILL OBSCURED SLIPPERY FAILURE WORN P-0.1 P-0.01 P-0.01 P 0.01 P-0.001 P-0.00 01 a. Please identify the Minimum Cut Sets for this Fault Tree. b. Please calculate the Fussell-Vesely Importance Factors for each of the lowest-level events. On which would you focus, and why? You must show all work and calculations.c. Several remediation measures are under consideration; they are listed in the table below: Option Cost Risk Impacted Impact* Build an Overpass $10 million Car at Main Road Reduces the probability of "Car Junction at Main Road Junction" from 0.01 to 0 Install a stoplight $150,000 Car at Main Road Reduces the probability of "Car and grading Junction at Main Road Junction" from 0.01 to 0.003 Install Speed Bumps $25,000 Driving too fast Reduces probability of "Driving too fast" from 0.1 to 0.05 Install Radar Speed $10,000 Driving too fast Reduces probability of "Driving Display too fast" from 0.1 to 0.06 Install additional $2,000 Driving too fast Reduces probability of "Driving Speed Limit signs too fast" from 0.1 to 0.08 "Note that the impacts of the various options for mitigating the same risk are not additive. That is, if you install both speed bumps and a Radar Speed Display, the impact of the Radar Speed Display is negligible Similarly, if you install both an overpass and a stoplight the impact of the stoplight is negligible C continued..Please expand the table above by calculating, for each option, q (the Net Probability of an accident if that particular measure is implemented,) effectiveness E, and the Change Cost-Effectiveness Ratio CE. You may ignore the impact of Risk Aversion in your analysis. Hint: pl is greater than $1 million in this problem d. With respect to the possible remediation measures, what are your recommendations to the Town of Templeton, and why? For the selected remediation measure(s), please calculate the implementation cost to the town, the revised accident probability once the selected remediation measure(s) have been implemented, the net savings to the town over 10 years, and the Simple Payback in years. You must show all work and calculations
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