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PROBLEM 1: Consider the data on quarterly mobile home shipments over last ten years (download EXCEL file MobileHome.xlsx from Canvas). (a) If company uses 3
PROBLEM 1: Consider the data on quarterly mobile home shipments over last ten years (download EXCEL file MobileHome.xlsx from Canvas). (a) If company uses 3 period moving average method for these data, how good is the forecast (compute Mean Absolute \% Error and RMSE). Create your own EXCEL spreadsheet to forecast for Period 4 onwards and compute Mean \% Error, Mean Absolute \% Error, RMSE (Root Mean Square Error), and other indicators. Discuss what information these indicators provide. (b) Repeat Part (a) if company uses 4 period moving averages. Compare the results to the one obtained in part (a). (c) Repeat Part (a) if company uses 3 period weighted moving average (where at time t, your forecast for time (t+1) is (3/6)X1+(2/6)Xt1+(1/6)Xt2). Compare the results to the one obtained in part (a) as well as part (b). PROBLEM 1: Consider the data on quarterly mobile home shipments over last ten years (download EXCEL file MobileHome.xlsx from Canvas). (a) If company uses 3 period moving average method for these data, how good is the forecast (compute Mean Absolute \% Error and RMSE). Create your own EXCEL spreadsheet to forecast for Period 4 onwards and compute Mean \% Error, Mean Absolute \% Error, RMSE (Root Mean Square Error), and other indicators. Discuss what information these indicators provide. (b) Repeat Part (a) if company uses 4 period moving averages. Compare the results to the one obtained in part (a). (c) Repeat Part (a) if company uses 3 period weighted moving average (where at time t, your forecast for time (t+1) is (3/6)X1+(2/6)Xt1+(1/6)Xt2). Compare the results to the one obtained in part (a) as well as part (b)
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