Problem 13-17 (Algorithmic)

Hemmingway, Inc., is considering a $9 million research and development (R&D) project. Profit projections appear promising, but Hemmingway's president is concerned because the probability that the R&D project will be successful is only 0.50. Furthermore, the president knows that even if the project is successful, it will require that the company build a new production facility at a cost of $20 million in order to manufacture the product. If the facility is built, uncertainty remains about the demand and thus uncertainty about the profit that will be realized. Another option is that if the R&D project is successful, the company could sell the rights to the product for an estimated $33 million. Under this option, the company would not build the $20 million production facility.

The decision tree is shown in Figure 13.18. The profit projection for each outcome is shown at the end of the branches. For example, the revenue projection for the high demand outcome is $68 million. However, the cost of the R&D project ($9 million) and the cost of the production facility ($20 million) show the profit of this outcome to be $68 $9 $20 = $39 million. Branch probabilities are also shown for the chance events.

1. Analyze the decision tree to determine whether the company should undertake the R&D project. If it does, and if the R&D project is successful, what should the company do?

   Yes, the company should start the R&D project and if it is successful, then the company should build the facility.Yes, the company should start the R&D project and if it is successful, then the company should not build the facility.No, the company should not undertake the R&D project.

   What is the expected value of your strategy? If required, round your answer to 2 decimal places. Expected value = $ fill in the blank 2M
6. What must the selling price be for the company to consider selling the rights to the product? If required, round your answers to 2 decimal places. Payoff for sell rights would have to be $ fill in the blank 3M or more. In order to recover the $9M R&D cost, the selling price would have to be $ fill in the blank 4M or more.
11. Develop a risk profile for the optimal strategy. If required, round your answers to two decimal places.

    Possible Profit	Associated Probability
    $39M	fill in the blank 5
    $21M	fill in the blank 6
    $11M	fill in the blank 7
    -$9M	fill in the blank 8
    	fill in the blank 9

Hemmingway, Inc., is considering a $9 million research and development (R&D) project. Profit projections appear promising, but Hemmingway's president is concerned because the probability that the R&D project will be successful is only 0.50. Furthermore, the president knows that even if the project is successful, it will require that the company build a new production facility at a cost of $20 million in order to manufacture the product. If the facility is built, uncertainty remains about the demand and thus uncertainty about the profit that will be realized. Another option is that if the R&D project is successful, the company could sell the rights to the product for an estimated $33 million. Under this option, the company would not build the $20 million production facility. FIGURE 13.18 DECISION TREE FOR HEMMINGWAY, INC. Start R&D Project ($9 million) |1| Do Not Start the R&D Project Successful 0.5 Not Successful 0.5 Building Facility ($20 million) 3 Sell Rights Profit ($ millions) 39 High Demand 0.6 Medium Demand 0.3 Low Demand 0.1 21 11 24 The decision tree is shown in Figure 13.18. The profit projection for each outcome is shown at the end of the branches. For example, the revenue projection for the high demand outcome is $68 million. However, the cost of the R&D project ($9 million) and the cost of the production facility ($20 million) show the profit of this outcome to be $68 $9 - $20 = $39 million. Branch probabilities are also shown for the chance events. a. Analyze the decision tree to determine whether the company should undertake the R&D project. If it does, and if the R&D project is successful, what should the company do? Yes, the company should start the R&D project and if it is successful, then the company should build the facility. Yes, the company should start the R&D project and if it is successful, then the company should not build the facility. No, the company should not undertake the R&D project. Expected value = $ b. What must the selling price be for the company to consider selling the rights to the product? If required, round your answers to 2 decimal places. Payoff for sell rights would have to be $ have to be $ M or more. M or more. In order to recover the $9M R&D cost, the selling price would c. Develop a risk profile for the optimal strategy. If required, round your answers to two decimal places. Possible Profit $39M $21M $11M -$9M Associated Probability