Problem 2 Exponentiall Smoothing l-Iotlels 'Worksheet 3 a. (4 Points) I11 column C (starting in the appropriate cell). write a formula to forecast demand through October using an ES model with smoothing constant alpha given in cell D1. Be sure to reference the cells containing the weights in the folmula. (3 Points) In cell H5. write a formula to forecast demand for November using the ES model you constructed. (4 Points} In column D. under the label \"ES Error.\" wiite a formula in the appropriate cells calculating the error terms necessary to calculate the h-IAPE for the ES model. Do I'd not construct a column of errors. then another column of absolute. squared. or absolute relative errors. Construct only one set of arms using the appropriate folmula to make the en'ors absolute. squared. or absolute relative {whichever is appropriate for MAPE). (3 Point) In cell H8. write a formula using a built-In Excel function referencing the appropriate cells to detenuine the MAPE for the ES model. (8 Points) Using StatTools replicate the ES forecasting processes following the guidelines below: i. Create the ES (alpha =02} forecast incorporating only Forecast Overlay and Forecast Errors Charts. Place the output in cell A] of the StatToolsES Worksheet. ii. Follow the guidelines in our text to find the optimal alpha (smoothing constant) for the ES model of our data. Incorporate in you process only Forecast Overlay and Forecast Errors Charts. Place the output in cell (31 of the StatToolsES Worksheet. (3 Points} Which Metiic does StatTools use for optimization? {Your textbook has the answer.) Place your answer in cell H10. What value does StatIools give as the optimal alpha? Place your answer in cell H11. What is the value of the MAPE at this alpha value? Place your answer in cell H12. A B C D E F G H Problem 2 alpha= 0.2 3 ES Forecast ES Error Month Orders Nov Value 5 Jan 120 Question 2b Forecast = 6 Feb 90 Mar 100 Value 8 Apr 75 Question 2d MAPE 9 May 110 LO Jun 50 Metric 11 Jul 75 Question 2f alpha 12 Aug 130 MAPE 13 Sep 110 14 Oct 90 15 Question 2a Question 2c 17 18 19 20 21