Problem 4

The following activities are part of a project to be scheduled by CPM / PERT:

Activity	Immediate Predecessor	Optimistic Time	Most Likely Time	Pessimistic Time
A	---	2	4	8
B	A	1	8	12
C	A	4	5	12
D	A	3	4	7
E	B	1	2	5
F	C	1	6	8
G	D	1	8	9
H	E, F	2	4	6
I	H	2	9	12
J	G	3	4	5
K	I, J	5	6	9

Draw the network and determine the critical path based on expected completion time. Round the expected completion times for each activity to the nearest whole number. What activities are on the critical path?

What is the estimated completion time for the project? (Use the rounded answers from question 1).

What is the probability that the project will be completed within 35 days? (Use the exact values from Excel).

What is the probability that the project will be completed Within 28 Days? (Use the exact values from Excel).

We are 99% confident the project will be completed within how many days? (Use the exact values from Excel). (Hint: Use the excel function, NORM.INV, where Te is the expected or mean time.)