Problem 7-09

Suppose that you have estimated the FamaFrench three-factor and four-factor models for three different stocks: BCD, FGH, and JKL. Specifically, using return data from 2005 to 2009, the following equations were estimated:

Three-Factor Model:
	BCD:	[E(R) - RFR] = (0.949)(M) + (-0.015)(SMB) + (-0.391)(HML)
	FGH:	[E(R) - RFR] = (1.030)(M) + (-0.058)(SMB) + (0.376)(HML)
	JKL:	[E(R) - RFR] = (1.171)(M) + (0.549)(SMB) + (0.532)(HML)
Four-Factor Model:
	BCD:	[E(R) - RFR] = (1.030)(M) + (-0.015)(SMB) + (-0.371)(HML) + (0.074)(MOM)
	FGH:	[E(R) - RFR] = (1.147)(M) + (-0.019)(SMB) + (0.449)(HML) + (0.177)(MOM)
	JKL:	[E(R) - RFR] = (1.045)(M) + (0.485)(SMB) + (0.358)(HML) + (-0.272)(MOM)

1. You have also estimated factor risk premia over a recent 15-year period as: _M = 7.18 percent, _SMB = 2.05 percent, _HML = 4.32 percent, and _MOM = 4.86 percent. Use these estimated risk premia along with two factor models estimated to calculate the expected excess returns for the three stocks. Round your answers to two decimal places.

   	Three-factor model	Four-factor model
   BCD:	%	%
   FGH:	%	%
   JKL:	%	%

2. Suppose that you have also estimated historical factor risk prices for two different time frames: (1) 30-year period: (_M = 7.04 percent, _SMB = 1.59 percent, and _HML = 5.20 percent), and (2) 80-year period: (_M = 7.98 percent, _SMB = 3.71 percent, and _HML = 4.97 percent). Calculate the expected excess returns for BCD, FGH, and JKL using both of these alternative sets of factor risk premia in conjunction with the three-factor risk model. Round your answers to two decimal places.

   	30-year period	80-year period
   BCD:	%	%
   FGH:	%	%
   JKL:	%	%

3. You now also consider historical estimates for the MOM risk factor over the two additional time frames: (1) _MOM = 8.06 percent (30-year period), and (2) _MOM = 9.88 percent (80-year period). Using this additional information, calculate the expected excess returns for BCD, FGH, and JKL in conjunction with the four-factor risk model. Round your answers to two decimal places.

   	30-year period	80-year period
   BCD:	%	%
   FGH:	%	%
   JKL:	%	%

4. Do all of the expected excess returns you calculated in part (a) and part (b) make sense? If not, identify which ones seem inconsistent with asset pricing theory and discuss why.

   The excess returns for (Select-stocks BCD and FGH, stocks BCD and JKL, all the stocks) for all periods seem moderately large. This is partly due to the fact that the regressions unlike factor risk premia were estimated using data from much (Select-longer, shorter) periods.