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PROJECT #1 - Mortgage Foreclosure Rate and Economic Indicators (n = 50 states, k = 7 predictors) 2007 Foreclosure Rates (per 1,000) Mass Layoff events
PROJECT #1 - Mortgage Foreclosure Rate and Economic Indicators (n = 50 states, k = 7 predictors) | ||||||||
2007 Foreclosure Rates (per 1,000) | Mass Layoff events per 100,000 people | Share of new mortgages that were subprime in 2005 | average home prices to median household income ratio | Home Ownership rates (%) 2005 | Period Ended Dec 06 Average 5Yr home price appreciation | 2007 Unemployment rate percent change | % of housing that was moved into in 2000-2005 | |
State | Foreclosure | MassLayoff | SubprimeShare | PriceIncomeRatio | Homeownership | 5YrApp | UnempChange | %HousMoved |
Alabama | 2.70 | 5.96 | 28% | 4.04 | 76.6 | 32.51 | 0.00% | 0.448 |
Alaska | 4.90 | 2.78 | 18% | 5.54 | 66.0 | 53.91 | -4.62% | 0.426 |
Arizona | 15.20 | 1.56 | 26% | 6.79 | 71.1 | 96.55 | -7.32% | 0.383 |
Arkansas | 5.10 | 2.43 | 23% | 3.68 | 69.2 | 32.62 | 1.89% | 0.419 |
California | 19.20 | 11.30 | 25% | 9.54 | 59.7 | 105.80 | 10.20% | 0.361 |
Colorado | 19.20 | 1.65 | 24% | 6.68 | 71.0 | 22.24 | -11.63% | 0.376 |
Connecticut | 8.30 | 1.46 | 23% | 6.52 | 70.5 | 57.96 | 4.55% | 0.406 |
Delaware | 2.70 | 1.97 | 20% | 6.07 | 75.8 | 70.83 | -2.86% | 0.448 |
Florida | 20.00 | 4.36 | 30% | 7.30 | 72.4 | 106.90 | 17.65% | 0.348 |
Georgia | 15.70 | 3.67 | 28% | 4.55 | 67.9 | 28.02 | -4.35% | 0.38 |
Hawaii | 2.00 | 3.58 | 19% | 8.92 | 59.8 | 108.52 | 4.00% | 0.474 |
Idaho | 6.10 | 6.14 | 22% | 5.01 | 74.2 | 61.54 | -15.63% | 0.413 |
Illinois | 12.50 | 4.99 | 29% | 6.51 | 70.9 | 42.36 | 8.70% | 0.39 |
Indiana | 10.30 | 5.91 | 26% | 4.15 | 75.0 | 16.98 | -8.16% | 0.393 |
Iowa | 3.10 | 6.43 | 22% | 4.01 | 73.9 | 23.59 | 0.00% | 0.442 |
Kansas | 2.00 | 3.31 | 23% | 4.38 | 69.5 | 24.64 | -4.65% | 0.475 |
Kentucky | 2.70 | 8.16 | 24% | 4.68 | 71.6 | 24.62 | -5.17% | 0.449 |
Louisiana | 2.00 | 2.49 | 28% | 3.92 | 72.5 | 41.22 | -2.56% | 0.494 |
Maine | 0.40 | 3.04 | 22% | 4.86 | 73.9 | 59.60 | 2.17% | 0.528 |
Maryland | 8.30 | 2.28 | 27% | 6.91 | 71.2 | 99.86 | -5.26% | 0.407 |
Massachusetts | 6.60 | 1.98 | 19% | 6.43 | 63.4 | 48.75 | -6.25% | 0.411 |
Michigan | 19.50 | 9.42 | 28% | 4.95 | 76.4 | 16.15 | 4.35% | 0.353 |
Minnesota | 5.10 | 3.83 | 23% | 5.24 | 76.5 | 41.91 | 15.00% | 0.422 |
Mississippi | 1.10 | 2.74 | 33% | 3.93 | 78.8 | 31.12 | -5.97% | 0.5 |
Missouri | 9.10 | 5.60 | 27% | 4.92 | 72.3 | 33.11 | 4.17% | 0.399 |
Montana | 2.70 | 5.12 | 18% | 5.95 | 70.4 | 62.15 | -6.06% | 0.45 |
Nebraska | 4.70 | 1.80 | 22% | 4.65 | 70.2 | 20.31 | 0.00% | 0.432 |
Nevada | 33.80 | 5.26 | 28% | 5.66 | 63.4 | 99.35 | 14.29% | 0.335 |
New Hampshire | 2.10 | 2.36 | 20% | 6.75 | 74.0 | 54.10 | 2.86% | 0.472 |
New Jersey | 9.00 | 5.79 | 21% | 7.03 | 70.1 | 78.52 | -10.64% | 0.401 |
New Mexico | 3.60 | 2.79 | 22% | 5.23 | 71.4 | 55.63 | -18.60% | 0.441 |
New York | 4.90 | 3.80 | 23% | 6.31 | 55.9 | 67.34 | -2.17% | 0.426 |
North Carolina | 7.40 | 1.03 | 22% | 4.57 | 70.9 | 30.90 | 0.00% | 0.411 |
North Dakota | 0.80 | 3.44 | 16% | 4.30 | 68.5 | 39.15 | 0.00% | 0.502 |
Ohio | 18.00 | 6.24 | 26% | 4.83 | 73.3 | 16.53 | 3.70% | 0.378 |
Oklahoma | 5.20 | 1.91 | 27% | 4.32 | 72.9 | 26.00 | 4.88% | 0.418 |
Oregon | 5.40 | 6.88 | 22% | 6.52 | 68.2 | 68.91 | -3.70% | 0.414 |
Pennsylvania | 3.00 | 9.50 | 19% | 5.11 | 73.3 | 55.32 | -4.35% | 0.448 |
Rhode Island | 4.10 | 5.10 | 27% | 6.68 | 63.1 | 83.08 | -1.96% | 0.441 |
South Carolina | 2.20 | 4.02 | 24% | 4.93 | 73.9 | 33.86 | -7.81% | 0.462 |
South Dakota | 0.10 | 1.38 | 18% | 4.53 | 68.4 | 33.65 | -3.23% | 0.548 |
Tennessee | 9.80 | 2.52 | 27% | 4.37 | 72.4 | 30.32 | -7.84% | 0.396 |
Texas | 9.40 | 1.80 | 29% | 4.20 | 65.9 | 24.18 | -12.24% | 0.398 |
Utah | 8.50 | 1.63 | 25% | 5.20 | 73.9 | 43.93 | -10.00% | 0.404 |
Vermont | 0.10 | 8.69 | 15% | 4.77 | 74.2 | 63.02 | 5.41% | 0.587 |
Virginia | 5.10 | 1.84 | 21% | 8.38 | 71.2 | 80.60 | 0.00% | 0.422 |
Washington | 5.70 | 2.92 | 22% | 6.58 | 67.6 | 66.13 | -8.16% | 0.414 |
West Virginia | 0.50 | 1.05 | 21% | 4.34 | 81.3 | 35.82 | -2.13% | 0.502 |
Wisconsin | 4.90 | 12.50 | 21% | 4.83 | 71.1 | 36.37 | 4.26% | 0.428 |
Wyoming | 1.50 | 0.96 | 23% | 5.06 | 72.8 | 62.56 | -9.09% | 0.498 |
Use the standard error to construct an approximate prediction interval for Y. Based on the width of this prediction interval, would you say the predictions are good enough to have practical value?
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