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Project case 1: Sensitivity analysis A car dealership plans to renovate one of its showrooms. The AON network for this renovation project is given below
Project case 1: Sensitivity analysis A car dealership plans to renovate one of its showrooms. The AON network for this renovation project is given below (hint: the number below the activity code refers to its duration). F ?? ? Start A 10 End com w O Two risks were identified, by the stakeholder organisation executing the work, as potential threats in this simple project; they are: delivery of special-purpose tiles needed for activity C (showroom flooring), and skill level of labourers in charge of activity F (interior wall cladding for administration and sales offices). Task Perform a sensitivity analysis for the two risks (one-at-a-time analysis). All impacts are to be measured in $. For each of the two risks: calculate the extra costs incurred due to risk occurrence . develop a chart to illustrate the progressive impacts in $ (y-axis) as risk values change within its nominal range (x-axis).Consider the following The special-purpose load bearing and abrasion resistant tiles will be ordered on the early morning of the first day of the project. Records of the stakeholder organisation executing the project show that the delivery time for this type of special-purpose floor tiles could vary between 8 and 18 days. Guaranteed delivery date could not be obtained from the vendor. Arrangements have been made to rent some special tools that are required for executing activity C. The tools will arrive on the early start of this activity. The daily rental cost is $300 and will be paid regardless of whether the work is done or postponed! . Activity F requires specialised cladding crew. The crew has a normal productivity rate of 22 m2 per day.There is a concern that the productivity level of the wall cladding crew may not be as originally thought. Feedback from the work supervisor confirmed that the productivity could drop to 10 m2 per day, but not more. The daily wage for the crew is $800 (regardless of the actual hours worked during the day). Original estimates for the duration of activity F were based on the interior wall cladding of four rooms [each with dimensions of 3.5(L) x 2.5(w) x 3(h)]. Cladding will cover the wholeinterior area of the walls (you can ignore the openings). A penalty is incurred if project exceeds its deadline (according to the contract, the deadline is 35 working days). The first two days of delay beyond the deadline are penalized $1,500 each. An increased penalty of $2,000 per day is incurred thereafter. Hint: Solve following questions and use the given tables to perform the required sensitivity analysis. 1. What is the total amount of work for Activity F in m2 (i.e., the total amount of wall classing for the four rooms)? Be advised that work does not include floors or ceilings. 2. What is the minimum and maximum duration of activity F? 3. Activity C sensitivity analysis. Delivery Time Activity C Project Additional Project Extra cost Extra Total extra Start Day Duration days of delay due to cost due cost (tools tools rental tools rental to project delay delay) 8 day 9 day 10 day Add rows for delivery time until 18 days.4. Activity F sensitivity analysis Productivity Duration Duration Additional Project Extra cost Extra Total extra (before (after days of delay due to cost due cost rounding) rounding) work in wages for to project (wages + activity F activity F delay delay) 22 m2/day 21 m2/day 20 m2/day Add rows for productivity until 10 m2/day
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