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Purchasing Power Parity and Exchange Rate Forecast Suppose the current dollar-pound exchange rate is $1.5 per pound. A U.S. basket that costs $100 would cost
Purchasing Power Parity and Exchange Rate Forecast
Suppose the current dollar-pound exchange rate is $1.5 per pound. A U.S. basket that costs $100 would cost $120 in the United Kingdom. For the next year, the Federal Reserve is predicted to keep U.S. inflation at 2% and the Bank of England is predicted to keep U.K. inflation at 3%. The speed of convergence to absolute PPP is 15% per year.
- What is the expected U.S. minus U.K. inflation differential for the coming year?
- What is the current U.S. real exchange rate, q$/, with the U.K.?
- How much is the dollar overvalued/undervalued?
- What do you predict the U.S. real exchange rate with the U.K.will be in one year's time?
- What is the expected rate of real appreciation for the U.S. (versus the U.K.)?
- What is the expected rate of nominal appreciation for the U.S. (versus the U.K.)?
- What do you predict will be the dollar price of one pound a year from now?
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