1. Purpose and Requirements

Based on the fundamental analysis, quantitative analysis and technical analysis to the stock of own position, point out the stock price pressure level, support level, wave band and so on, from the analysis of different periods, get the general trend of stock price in the future period, according to this judgment, clarify the corresponding operation strategy.

Process

The stock in my position

WANDADIANYING(002739

Fundamental analysis

Macroeconomic Analysis:

Since the first half of this year, China's macro economy weak stabilizing general characteristics, both import and export data of the demand side, continued high real estate investment and infrastructure investment is gradually warming, increase speed or supply side, the growth of the service industry, faced with adverse global economic situation and the global economy downward pressure, stable export and foreign investment in our country, realize the stable economic growth, the macro policy and accelerated the reform of its contribution. In the coming period, China's macro economy is still facing huge shocks and challenges, and much of the potential of China's economy still needs to be fully tapped and brought into full play through the structural adjustment of the domestic economy.

In 2019, under the influence of multiple factors such as the overall intensification of trade conflicts between China and the United States, the synchronized decline of the world economy, the continuous fermentation of domestic structural factors, and the increase of cyclical downward forces, China's macro economy has said farewell to the 2016-2018 plateau period of "stability, moderation and moderation".

In five pullback in short-term cycle factors, the three major traditional dividend rapidly and impact of triple two temporary emergencies, China's macro economy got full elasticity and toughness, in "six stability" as the core of counter-cyclical policies and continuous supply side under the hedge structural reform, China's macro economy successfully hold the bottom line, complete the expected goals. However, it is worth noting that in the process of economic growth decline, the structural differentiation of the economy is serious. The upgrading type of structural adjustment slows down, while the depression-type structural adjustment continues to accelerate, leading to a difficult period for China's economic structural adjustment in 2019. Real GDP growth for the whole of 2019 was about 6.4 per cent, and adjusted GDP growth was about 6.1 per cent. Under the benchmark scenario, CPI will grow by 2.1%, PPI by -0.3%, GDP deflator by 1.8%, consumption by 8.0%, investment by 5.7%, export by 1.6%, import by -0.9%, and RMB /USD exchange rate (CNY/USD) will remain in the range of 6.85-6.95.

In 2018, 9,303 new screens were installed nationwide, bringing the total number of screens to 6,079. In recent years, the number of new screens in China has maintained at about 10,000 a year, but the growth rate has slowed down. According to the state film administration, the total box office of Chinese films in 2018 was 60.976 billion yuan, up 9.06 percent from 55.11 billion yuan the previous year, and 1.716 billion people watched movies in urban cinemas, up 5.93 percent from 1.62 billion yuan the previous year. Of that total, domestic films made 37.897 billion yuan, accounting for 62.15 percent of the total.

Industry Analysis

The company's industry and main business

Wanda film co., ltd. is a cinema line company mainly engaged in the investment, construction and operation management of cinemas, which belongs to the film industry. The company adopts the business model of asset linkage and chain operation to carry out the above business, and all the properties of the cinema are acquired by lease.

The company's main products or services are:

1. Cinema screening. The company is a leading domestic cinema investment and operator, box office, audience, market share has been ranked first in China for ten consecutive years.

2. Selling products. There are two main categories of products for sale, namely film derivative products and catering products.

3. Advertise. The company's advertising business mainly includes screen advertising and position advertising.

4. Film production and distribution. The company mainly through the investment, production of films, the film box office revenue and derivative income, and obtain profits.

5. Production and distribution of TV series. The company mainly through investment, production of TV series, TV series to television stations and new media platform sales of copyright to obtain copyright sales and distribution income, and profit.

6. Game release. The company mainly distributes and operates online games to obtain game revenue and profit, including web games and mobile games.

5. Data processing and analysis

Technical Analysis

BOLL and MACD

The stock is still in a short-term shock correction, the short-term risk still exists, technically can be held for a long time

6. Conclusion:

The fundamental analysis of the stock has a high investment value. Quantitative analysis shows that although there are extreme risks, the bias is positive, the positive rate of return is more than the negative rate of return, and the alpha is positive, beta is less than 1, not sensitive to the market, the current market volatility is large, should not buy. Technical analysis, the stock is in the tail of a long-term correction, short-term risk remains, but long-term risk gradually fade. Overall, the investment strategy of the stock is long-term holding.

Think about that, if you work as an Investment researcher in the investment bank, your boss or customer come to ask you some advice for their investment selection.