Q) We want to choose capacity for a plant that will produce a new drug. In particular, we want to choose the capacity that maximizes discounted expected profit over the next 10 years. Assume all cash flows occur at the end of the year. We have the following information:

Demand for the drug is expected to be normally distributed Normal (50,000, 12,000). Demand each year is an independent event.

A unit of capacity costs $16 to build in year 1.

The number of units produced will equal the demand, up to capacity limits.

The revenue per unit is $3.70 and the cost per unit is $0.20 (variable cost).

The maintenance cost per unit of capacity is $0.40 (fixed cost).

The discount rate is 10%.

1) Perform a simulation assuming the plant will be designed to meet the expected demand. What is the expected net present value (NPV) in this case?

a. $39,374

b. $45,474

c. $49,474

d. $51,000

2) Using the case in Question 1, make use of RISKSIMTABLE to with the following values for capacity: 20,000, 25,000, 30,000, 35,000, 40,000. Which of these capacities produces the largest expected NPV?

a. Q=30,000

b. Q=35,000

c. Q=25,000

d. None of them

3) In the simulation model run in Question 2, are there any simulations which indicated there was a chance of getting negative NPV? If yes, at which capacity level do you obtain it?

a. Q=35,000

b. Q=20,000

c. Q=25,000

d. Q=30,000