Q1 A product has a consistent year round demand. You are responsible for the forecast and have been tasked with experimenting with some time series analysis. Using this previous monthly demand, calculate the following forecasts for each period possible. A) 4 Period Simple moving average B) Two Period Weighted moving average using weights of .7,.3, C) three-period weighted moving average with weights of .5, .3,.2 and D) Exponential Smoothing forecast using an Alpha of .40 and a Week 1 forecast of 800 units. Round all forecasts to whole Month Jan Demand 725 SMA WMA 4 Period .7, .3 WMA .5,.3,.2 EXP Sm.40 800 Feb 680 Mar 720 Apr 800 May 902 Jun 876 Jul 825 Aug 950 Sep 956 Oct 1021 Nov 995 Dec 1050 Q2 For each of the forecasts and demand below, calculate the Mean Absolute Deviation, Mean Squared Error and Mean Absolute Percent Error. Use the ABS formula for Absolute Value. NOTE: Use formulas for each calculation. Absolute MAD MSE MAPE Week Demand Forecast Error (e) Error e^2 Abs e/A 1 360 425 234 2 390 400 3 410 450 4 385 350 5 420 380 6 405 400 ANSWER Q3 The Actual demand for snowboards from a large GTA Sporting Goods chain is shown below for 2020. Calculate the Seasonal Index for last year for each of the four seasons. Use the seasonal Index to calculate the demand for each of the seasons for this coming year (Table #2) based on a new ANNUAL demand of 3200 snowboards. Use two decimal places for your seasonal factor. Round your final forecasts to whole numers. Last Year 2020 Season Sold Average Seasonal Factor Winter 900 Spring 678 Summer 450 Fall 720 Table 2 Average Seasonal Factor Season Winter Spring Summer Fall Forecast