Q1. Chico Cosmetics Company is estimating market sales potential (= effective demand) and sales/profit forecasting on its new anti-aging cream for the U.S. mature female consumers. The information given is:

• Group 1: The U.S. female population aged between 45~64 years: See the Census table below
• Group 2: The U.S. female population aged 65 years and over: See the Census table below
• 20% of Group 1 use anti-aging cream and the average amount consumed per person per year is 1.2 jars
• 25% of Group 2 use anti-aging cream and the average amount consumed per person per year is 1.5 jars
• The average price per 1g of anti-aging cream is $1 and average size of a jar of anti-aging cream is 50g.
• Chico Cosmetics Companys info: Target market: 30%, Distribution/Communication coverage: 70%

1. Use chain ratio method (See Kerins Ch. 4) and your logics/rationales to calculate market sales potential (units and $) of the market in 2018. If any information you think needed is not provided, use rational/logical estimates. (5 pts.)

2. Estimate Chico Cosmetics Companys sales forecast (units and $) in 2018 for its anti-aging cream. (5 pts.)

c.Would you launch the product in 2018? Explain your rationale. (5 pts.)

Tip:No information related to variable costs or the product unit selling price is given. Do the simple numeric value analysis.

(I will comment the table needed for this question, it is too long to post all together)

Table 1. Population by Sex and Selected Age Groups: 2000 and 2010 (For information on confidentiality protection, nonsampling error, and definitions see www.census.gov/prod/cen 2010/doc/sf/.pdf Sex and selected age groups 2000 2010 Change, 2000 to 2010 Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Total population 281,421,906 100.0 308,745,538 100.0 27,323,632 9.7 SEX Male 138,053,563 49.1 151,781,326 492 13,727,763 9.9 Female 143,368,343 50.9 156,964,212 508 13,595,869 9.5 SELECTED AGE GROUPS Under 18 years 72,293,812 25.7 74,181,467 24.0 1,887,856 2.6 Under 5 years 19,175,798 6.8 20,201,362 6.5 1.025,564 5.3 5 to 17 years 53,118,014 18.9 33,980, 105 17.5 862,091 1,6 18 to 14 years 112, 183,705 39.9 112,806,642 36.5 622,037 0.6 27,143,454 9.6 30,672,088 9.9 3,528,634 13.0 25 to 44 years 85,040,251 30.2 82,134,554 26.6 45 to 64 years -2.905,697 34 61,952,636 22.0 81,489,445 28.4 19,536,809 31.5 65 years and over 34.991,753 12.4 40,287,984 13.0 5,278,231 15.1 16 years and over 217.149, 127 772 243,275,505 78.8 26,126,378 12.0 18 years and over 209,128,094 234,564,071 78,0 25,435,977 12. 2 21 years and over 196,899,193 70.0 220.958,853 71.6 24,059,660 122 62 years and over 41,256,029 14.7 49,972,181 16.2 8,710.152 21.1 Sources: US Census Bureau Census 2000 Summary File and 2010 Census Summary File 18 to 24 years 743 Table 1. Population by Sex and Selected Age Groups: 2000 and 2010 (For information on confidentiality protection, nonsampling error, and definitions see www.census.gov/prod/cen 2010/doc/sf/.pdf Sex and selected age groups 2000 2010 Change, 2000 to 2010 Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Total population 281,421,906 100.0 308,745,538 100.0 27,323,632 9.7 SEX Male 138,053,563 49.1 151,781,326 492 13,727,763 9.9 Female 143,368,343 50.9 156,964,212 508 13,595,869 9.5 SELECTED AGE GROUPS Under 18 years 72,293,812 25.7 74,181,467 24.0 1,887,856 2.6 Under 5 years 19,175,798 6.8 20,201,362 6.5 1.025,564 5.3 5 to 17 years 53,118,014 18.9 33,980, 105 17.5 862,091 1,6 18 to 14 years 112, 183,705 39.9 112,806,642 36.5 622,037 0.6 27,143,454 9.6 30,672,088 9.9 3,528,634 13.0 25 to 44 years 85,040,251 30.2 82,134,554 26.6 45 to 64 years -2.905,697 34 61,952,636 22.0 81,489,445 28.4 19,536,809 31.5 65 years and over 34.991,753 12.4 40,287,984 13.0 5,278,231 15.1 16 years and over 217.149, 127 772 243,275,505 78.8 26,126,378 12.0 18 years and over 209,128,094 234,564,071 78,0 25,435,977 12. 2 21 years and over 196,899,193 70.0 220.958,853 71.6 24,059,660 122 62 years and over 41,256,029 14.7 49,972,181 16.2 8,710.152 21.1 Sources: US Census Bureau Census 2000 Summary File and 2010 Census Summary File 18 to 24 years 743