Q1. Chico Cosmetics Company is estimating market sales potential (= effective demand) and sales/profit forecasting on its new anti-aging cream for the U.S. mature female consumers. The information given is: Group 1: The U.S. female population aged between 45-64 years: See the Census table below Group 2: The U.S. female population aged 65 years and over: See the Census table below 20% of Group 1 use anti-aging cream and the average amount consumed per person per year is 1.2 jars 25% of Group 2 use anti-aging cream and the average amount consumed per person per year is 1.5 jars The average price per 1g of anti-aging cream is $1 and average size of a jar of anti-aging cream is 50g. Chico Cosmetics Company's info: Target market: 30%, Distribution/Communication coverage: 70% a) Use chain ratio method (See Kerin's Ch. 4)'and your logics/rationales to calculate market sales potential (units and $) of the market in 2018. If any information you think needed is not provided, use rational/logical estimates. (5 pts.) b) Estimate Chico Cosmetics Company's sales forecast (units and $) in 2018 for its anti-aging cream. (5 pts.) c) Would you launch the product in 2018? Explain your rationale. (5 pts.) Tip: No information related to variable costs or the product unit selling price is given. Do the simple numeric value analysis. Table 1. Population by Sex and Selected Age Groups: 2000 and 2010 (For information on confidentiality protection, nopsampling error, and definitions see www.census.gov/prod/cen 2010/doc/sfl.pdf) 2000 2010 Change, 2000 to 2010 Sex and selected age groups Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent 100.0 27,323,632 9.7 49.2 50.8 13,727,763 13,595,869 9.9 9.5 Total population 281,421,906 100.0 308,745,538 SEX Male 138,053,563 49.1 151,781,326 Female 143,368,343 50.9 156,964,212 SELECTED AGE GROUPS Under 18 years 72,293,812 25.7 74,181,467 Under 5 years 19,175,798 6.8 20,201,362 5 to 17 years 53,118,014 18.9 53,980, 105 18 to 44 years 112,183,705 39.9 112,806,642 18 to 24 years 27,143,454 9.6 30,672,088 25 to 44 years 85,040,251 82,134,554 45 to 64 years 61,952,636 22.0 81,489,445 65 years and over 34,991,753 12.4 40,267,984 16 years and over 217,149,127 77.2 243,275,505 18 years and over 209, 128,094 74.3 234,564,071 21 years and over 196,899,193 70.0 220,958,853 62 years and over 41,256,029 14.7 49.972,181 Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000 Summary File 1 and 2010 Census Summary File 1. 30.2 24.0 6.5 17.5 36.5 9.9 26.6 26.4 13.0 78.8 76.0 71.6 16.2 1,887,655 1,025,564 862,091 622,937 3,528,634 -2,905,697 19,536,809 5,276,231 26,126,378 25,435,977 24,059,660 8,716,152 2.6 5.3 1.6 0.6 13.0 -3.4 31.5 15.1 12.0 12.2 12.2 21.1 Q1. Chico Cosmetics Company is estimating market sales potential (= effective demand) and sales/profit forecasting on its new anti-aging cream for the U.S. mature female consumers. The information given is: Group 1: The U.S. female population aged between 45-64 years: See the Census table below Group 2: The U.S. female population aged 65 years and over: See the Census table below 20% of Group 1 use anti-aging cream and the average amount consumed per person per year is 1.2 jars 25% of Group 2 use anti-aging cream and the average amount consumed per person per year is 1.5 jars The average price per 1g of anti-aging cream is $1 and average size of a jar of anti-aging cream is 50g. Chico Cosmetics Company's info: Target market: 30%, Distribution/Communication coverage: 70% a) Use chain ratio method (See Kerin's Ch. 4)'and your logics/rationales to calculate market sales potential (units and $) of the market in 2018. If any information you think needed is not provided, use rational/logical estimates. (5 pts.) b) Estimate Chico Cosmetics Company's sales forecast (units and $) in 2018 for its anti-aging cream. (5 pts.) c) Would you launch the product in 2018? Explain your rationale. (5 pts.) Tip: No information related to variable costs or the product unit selling price is given. Do the simple numeric value analysis. Table 1. Population by Sex and Selected Age Groups: 2000 and 2010 (For information on confidentiality protection, nopsampling error, and definitions see www.census.gov/prod/cen 2010/doc/sfl.pdf) 2000 2010 Change, 2000 to 2010 Sex and selected age groups Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent 100.0 27,323,632 9.7 49.2 50.8 13,727,763 13,595,869 9.9 9.5 Total population 281,421,906 100.0 308,745,538 SEX Male 138,053,563 49.1 151,781,326 Female 143,368,343 50.9 156,964,212 SELECTED AGE GROUPS Under 18 years 72,293,812 25.7 74,181,467 Under 5 years 19,175,798 6.8 20,201,362 5 to 17 years 53,118,014 18.9 53,980, 105 18 to 44 years 112,183,705 39.9 112,806,642 18 to 24 years 27,143,454 9.6 30,672,088 25 to 44 years 85,040,251 82,134,554 45 to 64 years 61,952,636 22.0 81,489,445 65 years and over 34,991,753 12.4 40,267,984 16 years and over 217,149,127 77.2 243,275,505 18 years and over 209, 128,094 74.3 234,564,071 21 years and over 196,899,193 70.0 220,958,853 62 years and over 41,256,029 14.7 49.972,181 Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000 Summary File 1 and 2010 Census Summary File 1. 30.2 24.0 6.5 17.5 36.5 9.9 26.6 26.4 13.0 78.8 76.0 71.6 16.2 1,887,655 1,025,564 862,091 622,937 3,528,634 -2,905,697 19,536,809 5,276,231 26,126,378 25,435,977 24,059,660 8,716,152 2.6 5.3 1.6 0.6 13.0 -3.4 31.5 15.1 12.0 12.2 12.2 2