Q1) Draw a decision tree ((by hand)) and Place net contribution values at each end point

Ferlin Haggard, a patron of the arts and fast-buck promoter is considering backing a Broadway play for the upcoming season. The list of prospective plays has been narrowed to the following two: Cabernet, a musical adaptation of The Grapes of Wrath, and How to Succeed in Business Without Dying, a melodrama based on The Godfather. From back issues of Variety, Haggard has determined that musicals of the Cabernet type are hits (or successful) 20% of the time and flops (or failures) 80% of the time. He similarly learned that melodramas are hits 30% of the time. Haggard's current financial resources are quite limited; his net liquid assets amount to only $750,000. As a result, he can afford to produce only one play for the coming season. However, Haggard does have the option of previewing one of the plays in New Haven before deciding which, if either, play he would like to produce for the Broadway (New York) stage. Since the time before the season begins is too short to allow Haggard to preview both plays in New Haven, he does have the option of previewing one play and producing the other for Broadway. The costs and revenues associated with the two plays are given below. No revenue will result from a New Haven preview. Haggard has observed that of the hit musicals on Broadway that were previewed in New Haven, 80% were hits in New Haven; of the musicals that flopped in New York and were previewed in New Haven, 40% were hits in New Haven. Of the hit melodramas in New York that were previewed, 90% were hits in New Haven; 60% of the previewed melodramas that flopped in New York were hits in New Haven. While Haggard may find preview results useful, he feels that the accuracy of this kind of test is not high enough to compel him in all cases to act in accordance with the preview result. Diagram the decision problem facing Haggard. Place net contribution values on each end point. Do not try to determine the probabilities associated with the uncertain outcomes or determine which choice is best