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Q6 A manufacturer must decide whether to build a medium or a large plant at a new site in Montego Bay. Demand in the parish
Q6 A manufacturer must decide whether to build a medium or a large plant at a new site in Montego Bay. Demand in the parish of Montego Bay can be either small or large, with probabilities estimated to be 0.45 and 0.55 respectively. If a medium-sized plant is built, and demand is large, the production manager may decide to maintain the current size or to expand. The net present value of profits 1s $240,000 if the firm chooses not to expand. However, if the firm chooses to expand, there is a 50% chance that the net present value of the returns will be 490,000 and 50% chance the estimated net present value of profits will be $250,000. If a medium facility is built and demand is small, there 1s no reason to expand and the net present value of the profits is $230,000. However, if a large facility is built and the demand turns out to be small, the choice is to do nothing with a net present value of $80,000 or to stimulate demand through local advertising. The response to advertising can be either modest with a probability of .3 or favorable with a probability of 7. If the response to advertising is modest the net present value of the profits is $70,000. However, if the response to advertising is favorable, then the net present value of the profits is$260,000. Finally, if a large plant is built and the demand happens to be high, the net present value of the profits $1,000,000. Draw a decision tree and determine the most appropriate decision
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