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A company has organized a prediction market allowing its employees to bet on the success or failure of company initiatives. One security sold by the

A company has organized a prediction market allowing its employees to bet on the success or failure of company initiatives. One security sold by the prediction market is a bet that a new product will be ready to go to market on schedule. Employees who purchase this security will receive $100 on the date the new product is meant to go to market if it is indeed ready by then, and $0 otherwise.

At present, the security is selling at a price of $45. This means that the company's employees think the product has a:

a. 5.5% chance of being ready on schedule.

b. 45% chance of being ready on schedule.

c. 55% chance of being ready on schedule.

d. 95.5% chance of being ready on schedule.

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