QUESTION $10$

An ice cream store makes a demand forecast for the upcoming year, taking seasonality into consideration. The store has collected demand data over the past two years, which is shown in the table below. Assuming the initial de$-$seasonalized demand forecast for Year $2021$ is $3800.$ Using the exponential smoothing method with $=0\mathrm{.}3,$ the smoothed de$-$seasonalized average demand for Year $2023$ is forecasted to be $3747.$ What is the forecasted demand for Fall $2023$ based on the smooth average demand?

$\backslash$table$[[$Year $2021,$Year $2022],[$Spring$,$Summer,Fall,Winter,Spring,Summer,Fall,Winter$],[3300,5200,4200,2100,3000,5500,3800,2500]]$

$3619$

$3700$

$3863$

$4051$