QUESTION 1 Kristen Pacheco owns a small restaurant that's open seven days a week. Until recently, she forecasted the daily number of customers she would have using her intuition. However, she wanted to open another restaurant and recognized the need to adopt a more formal method of forecasting that could be used in both locations. Kristen decided to compare a three week moving average forecast with exponential smoothing forecasts using a = .7 and a = .3. She collected sales data for a month. The actual sales for the past three weeks are shown in the table below along with her forecast for last week. Week Actual: Customers Per Day Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat 3 weeks ago 138 183 182 188 207 277 388 2 weeks ago 143 194 191 200 213 292 401 Last week 157 196 204 193 226 313 408 Forecast: Last week 155 191 192 198 204 286 396 What is the forecast for Kristen's sales for each day of the week using a three-week moving average? a. 146, 187, 187, 193, 205, 281, 392 b. 146, 191, 192, 194, 215, 294, 399 c. 155, 191, 192, 198, 204, 286, 396 d. None of the above QUESTION 2 Using the data in Question 1, what is the forecast for Kristen's sales for each day of the week using exponential smoothing with a = .7? O a. 155, 179, 194, 196, 206, 246, 344 O b. 155, 191, 192, 198, 204, 286, 396 Oc. 156, 195, 200, 195, 219, 305, 404 d. None of the above QUESTION 3 Using the data in Question 1, what is the forecast for Kristen's sales for each day of the week using exponential smoothing with a = .3? O a. 155, 165, 192, 194, 201, 222, 311 O b. 155, 191, 192, 198, 204, 286, 396 c. 156, 193, 196, 197, 211, 294, 400 d. None of the above QUESTION 4 Kristen's actual sales for the following week were as follows: Week Actual: Sun 160 Mon Tue 204 197 Customers Per Day Wed 210 Thu Fri Sat 215 300 421 Using the data from Question 1 and this updated actual sales data, what is the mean average deviation for Kristen's forecast when using a three-week moving average? O a. 3.7 O b. 10.9 O c. 12.1 Od. None of the above QUESTION 5 Using the data from Question 1 and this updated actual sales data, what is the mean average deviation for Kristen's forecast when using exponential smoothing with a = .7? Week Actual: a. 8.14 b.8.27 c. 10.2 Od. None of the above Customers Per Day Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat 160 204 197 210 215 300 421 QUESTION 6 Using the data from Question 1 and this updated actual sales data, what is the mean average deviation for Kristen's forecast when using exponential smoothing with a = .3? Customers Per Day Week Actual: a. 8.57 b. 8.93 c. 10.4 d. None of the above Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat 160 204 197 210 215 300 421 QUESTION 7 Which forecasting method would you recommend that Kristen use? a. Three-month moving average Ob. Exponential smoothing with a = .3 c. Exponential smoothing with a = .7 Od. Any of the above - all are equally accurate. QUESTION 8 Which of the following is true of time series forecasts? a. The first forecast is typically set equal to the first period's actual demand. b. The first forecast is typically determined by setting it equal to the previous period's demand. c. The first forecast typically uses an average of recent historical demand to generate a forecast. d. None of the above. QUESTION 9 A commuter airline overbooks all of its flights by two passengers. The no-show experience for the past 20 days is as follows: Number of No- shows 0 1 2 3 4 Frequency 6 5 4 3 2 What is the maximum implied overbooking opportunity loss if the revenue from a passenger is $250? a. $204. 54 b. $583.33 c. $1,000. Od. None of the above QUESTION 10 How does the exponential smoothing technique determine a next-period forecast? a. By averaging recent historical demand to generate a forecast. b. By calculating a weighted average of n-period observations using varied weights. c. By identifying a causal variable, which is a predictor of demand, and using linear regression to identify the forecast equation. d. By using the current period's forecast, adjusted by a weighted difference between the current period's actual data and the forecast.