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Question 1 You are employed as an industrial engineer at a large manufacturing concern. The welding robots have to be replaced on the assembly line.

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Question 1 You are employed as an industrial engineer at a large manufacturing concern. The welding robots have to be replaced on the assembly line. Management has requested you to investigate the available equipment. You have identied two types of robots namely Rob 1 (alternative 1) which is capable of performing a number of tasks. Rob 2 (alternative 1) is a smaller and slower model of Rob 1. It has all the capabilities of Rob 1. The robots will be used to perform a variety of repair operations on large industrial equipment. You have identified a third possible alternative and that is to do nothing (do not buy any robots). You concluded the market for the repairs could be favourable or unfavourable. To assist you in making the correct decision, you compiled the following payoff table: Favourable Unfavourable Probability 0,60 0,40 Alternative 1 R50 000 -R40 000 Alternative 2 R30 000 -R20 000 Alternative 3 0 0 A concerned was raised regarding the validity of the information at hand and you are of the opinion that you cannot make an informed decision without conducting a survey. The cost of the survey would be R5 000. The company that conducted the survey has predicted the following: Results of survey Favourable Market (FM) Unfavourable market (UM) Positive (P) P(P|FM)=0,90 P(P|UM)=0,20 Negative (N) P(N|FM)=0,10 P(N|UM)=0,80 Informed decisions are important for any organisation. Ensuring you formulate the correct decision, you are required to compute the revised probabilities for the problem. [12]

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