Question 1 You have to subjectively assess an -quantile of a continuous random variable. The value of the quantile index is determined based on the last digit of your UTAS student ID number, as per the following table:

You need to perform the following: a) Define a continuous random variable of your choice, including its name, units of measurement and range of expected values that you will analyse. b) Define a level of the error, , that corresponds to the range of the variable and the expectations of the elicitation process. c) Write in words the complete dialog to assess the uncertainty interval of the selected -quantile for the defined continuous random variable, including:

i) Initial stage of the dialog

ii) Elicitation of the lower bound

iii) Elicitation of the upper bound

iv) Definition of the final uncertainty interval of the selected a-quantile and its point estimate

3 4 5 6 7 8 9 N Last digit of O 1 student ID Quantile 0.300.350.40 index 0.45 0.50 0.55 0.60 0.65 0.70 0.75 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 N Last digit of O 1 student ID Quantile 0.300.350.40 index 0.45 0.50 0.55 0.60 0.65 0.70 0.75