Question 16 (4 points)

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Your team of subject matter experts haveestimated that the most likely cost ofyourproject will be $46,000. You hired a top notch analyst who modeled and simulated your project using Monte Carlo analysis and a triangular distribution representing probable cost of activities. Theanalyst's simulation results are summarized in the table below that showsthe total cost of your projectand the probability of completing it at that cost. You and your sponsor have considered the analysis results and have decided to be more conservative and go withcosts associated with80% probability. Based on that decision, what is the difference between the most likely cost your subject matter experts estimated and the analyst's prediction for 80% probability?

Total ProjectCost	Probability
$ 68,000	100%
$ 60,000	90%
$ 54,000	80%
$ 50,000	70%
$ 48,000	60%
$ 46,000	50%
$ 43,000	40%
$ 40,000	30%
$ 35,000	20%
$ 28,000	10%
$ 15,000	0%

Question 16 options:

	$15,000
	$8,000
	$7,000
	$4,000