Question 4 A Find below demand for 11 periods.

Calculate;

1. Forecast for period 11 using exponential smoothing using an alpha of 0.05 and assuming your forecast for the first period was 131 [2].

2. 3 month moving forecast (2)

3. Compute a weighted average forecast using a weight of .40 for the most recent period 0.30 for the next most recent, .20 for the next, and .10 for the next. (3)

4. CFE for the 3 forecast techniques in 1-3 above. (3)

5. TS for the 3 techniques in 1-3 above. (3)

6. MAD for the 3 techniques in 1-3 above. (3)

7. MSE for the 3 techniques in 1-3 above. (3)

8. MAPE for the techniques in 1-3 above. (3)

9. Based on the error calculated, which forecast is the best? (2)