Question 4: For the following scenario, discuss the nature of the object to be forecasted, the forecast horizon, the possible costs of making a wrong forecast and what sorts of simple or complex forecasting approaches you might entertain. , You work for the Office of Management and Budget in Washington DC and must forecast tax revenues for the upcoming fiscal year. You work for a president who wants to maintain funding for his pilot social programs, and high revenue forecasts ensure that the programs keep their funding. However, if the forecast is too high, and the president runs a large deficit at the end of the year, he will be seen as fiscally irresponsible, which will lessen his probability of reelection. Furthermore, your forecast will be scrutinized by the more conservative members of Congress; if they find fault with your procedures, they might have fiscal grounds to undermine the President's planned budget