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Question 4 Now suppose an outside consultant is hired who the risk officer believes is unbiased. This expert believes there is a 60% chance
Question 4 Now suppose an outside consultant is hired who the risk officer believes is unbiased. This expert believes there is a 60% chance of a breach and the standard deviation of the experts beliefs is 0.1. a. Calculate the standard deviation of the survey respondents using the spreadsheet forthe estimate of the probability of whether or not a breach occurred. (Note: the standard deviation of the estimate, not the risk measure standard deviation). b. Calculate the confidence interval for the estimate of the probability of a breach for thesurvey respondents. c. Compute the confidence interval of the consultant. d. Which source is more accurate? e. Explain how the answer to (d) changes as the survey gets larger. 2
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