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Question 5 [30 marks]. An actuary produces a new standard mortality table for a country using a Poisson model to obtain estimates for the force
Question 5 [30 marks]. An actuary produces a new standard mortality table for a country using a Poisson model to obtain estimates for the force of mortality and then graduates these model outputs by reference to a parametric formula based on Gompertz Law to produce the nal table. (a) What are the advantages and disadvantages of this method of graduation in these circumstances? (b) The quality of the graduation is examined using a series of statistical tests with each test completed seprately for ages 0-18, 1945, 4665 and 66110. The table below shows for each test whether the relevant null hypothesis was accepted or rejected at the 95% signicance level. Test ge 018 Age 1945 Age 4665 Age 66110 Chi Squared accept accept reject accept Standard Deviations reject accept accept accept Signs accept accept reject reject Grouping of Signs accept accept accept reject What does this set of test results tell you about the graduation? (c) What adjustments would you recommend to the method of graduation in the light of your answer to (b) above
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