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Part $1$

The director of a large public library must schedule employees to reshelf books and periodicals checked out of the library. The number of items checked out will determine the labor requirements. The following dat

Month Year $1$ Year $2$ Year $3$

January $1,8792,0621,934$

February $2,6482,3212,564$

March $2,4212,3502,592$

April $2,4322,0882,150$

May $2,5052,6482,233$

June $2,3782,1222,663$

July $2,2802,2062,095$

August $2,4451,8691,678$

September $1,9042,5091,724$

October $1,9222,2912,065$

November $2,4392,4022,166$

December $2,2742,1892,407$

The director needs a$$ time$-$series method for forecasting the number of items to be checked out during the next month.

Part $2$

Suppose that the director considers the best forecast to be the one that minimizes the absolute value of mean bias $($Upper E overbarE$).$ Find the best simple moving average forecast you can using the$$ director's criteria.

Using the$$ director's criteria, the best forecast for the next month is $?$ items to be checked out. $($Enter your response as a whole$$ number.$)$