Questions $1$ through $3$ use the datasheet ChemicalDemand containing monthly data on demand for a chemical product over the past two years.$1.$

$2.$

$3.$

Compute the two$-$period and four$-$period moving average predictions for the data set.

a$.$ Prepare a line graph comparing the moving average predictions against the original data.

b$.$ Compute forecasts for the next four months using the two$-$period and four$-$period moving

averages.

Define a three$-$period weighted moving average model.

a$.$ Use Solver to determine the weights that minimize MSE. What are the optimal values for

weights?

b$.$ Prepare a line graph comparing the weighted moving average predictions against the original

data.

c$.$ What are the forecasts for the next four months using this technique?

Define an exponential smoothing model.

a$.$ Use Solver to determine the $$ value that minimizes MSE. What is the optimal $?$

b$.$ When we predict the next period, what are the weights for the current and past five periods?

c$.$ Prepare a line graph comparing the exponential smoothing predictions against the original data.

d$.$ What are the forecasts for the next four months using this technique?