Question
Read CMGs fiscal 2022 10-K (filed on February 9, 2023) Part 1. Develop and justify forecasts of CMGs sales growth rate, NOPM, and NOAT for
Read CMGs fiscal 2022 10-K (filed on February 9, 2023) Part 1. Develop and justify forecasts of CMGs sales growth rate, NOPM, and NOAT for 2023 2028. Note: you can extend the horizon period beyond 2028 as long as you would like to justify the primary estimate in part 2 below.
Develop and justify forecasts of CMGs sales growth rate, NOPM, and NOAT during the terminal period. Develop and justify an estimate of CMGs weighted average cost of capital.
Part 2: Valuation and Recommendation:
Primary Estimate #1: Estimate the per share value of CMGs stock as of February 9, 2023 using the residual operating income (ROPI) model. This roughly follows Lab F-7 and F-8. Calculate and use the WACC as the cost of capital (remembering to take out the tax shield for the cost of debt).
Estimate #2: Use Analyst Forecasts as a Measure of Subsequent Cash Flows. Use the cost of equity as the cost of capital.
Estimate #3: Use Relative Valuation (From the Value of Other Similar/Competitor Firms).
Investigate the sensitivity of your value estimate to changes in your key assumptions about sales growth, WACC, NOPM, NOAT, etc.
Contrast your three value estimates with the actual closing stock price of $1,606.91 per share on February 9, 2023.
Make and defend a recommendation (Buy, Hold, Sell, Ignore) based on the results of your analysis.
Identify one issue in the 10-K that causes concern and explain what you might do to investigate it.
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