Question
Read the article below. Interpret it and divide it into 3-4 parts for 10-15 min presentation. (Course: Korean Organizations Management) Macro-market discrepancy growing amid COVID-19
Read the article below. Interpret it and divide it into 3-4 parts for 10-15 min presentation. (Course: Korean Organizations Management)
Macro-market discrepancy growing amid COVID-19 Real economy falling apart: why are stocks rallying? The divergence between economies and stock markets has become more pronounced as shares around the world have remained resilient despite ever-worsening economic data amid the COVID-19 pandemic. Both domestic and global stock markets have rallied after a crash in late March, as if they were invulnerable to the disease which has dealt a severe blow to overall macroeconomic sectors including the job market and international trade. According to the United States' Department of Labor, more than 16.8 million people 10 percent of the workforce in the world's largest economy lost their jobs in America over the past three weeks. However, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which had dropped to 21,917 at the end of March from 25,409 at the end of February, bounced back to 23,434 as of April 8, according to Bank of Korea (BOK) data referencing Bloomberg. The S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq indices also rose around 10 percent within a month. This trend was not much different in export-reliant Korea. According to the Korea Customs Service, the value of the country's exports stood at $12.2 billion between April 1 and 10, down 18.6 percent year-on-year, although the number of working days was the same. The customs agency's data showed that Asia's fourth-largest economy saw exports decline in most sectors semiconductors, automobiles, petrochemical products, smartphones and auto- parts. All shipments to China, the U.S., the European Union, Vietnam, Japan, Latin America and the Middle East decreased during the period. Regarding the local job market, the state allowances paid to the unemployed or those seeking jobs soared to a record high of 898.2 billion won ($736 million) in March, up 40.4 percent from last year, according to data from the Ministry of Employment and Labor. Given that self-employed people and freelancers are not eligible for the unemployment payments, the impact of the coronavirus on the domestic job market has likely been more significant. Despite these unfavorable factors, the benchmark KOSPI, which nosedived to 1,458, March 19, from 1,987 at the end of February, soared to 1,861, April 10. "The KOSPI temporarily plunged due to concerns over a global economic recession and falling international oil prices, but the decrease has been moderated after the announcement of stimulus packages here and overseas in late March," the BOK said in a press release. "Share prices in developed countries also dropped sharply, because of concerns over sluggish business performances and the falling oil prices. However, they bounced back after late March thanks to aggressive policy measures including stimulus packages there." Analysts mentioned the U.S. Federal Reserve's aggressive liquidity supply, the expectation of economic recovery and hopes for a coronavirus peak in the U.S. as reasons for the global stock market rally. "The global stock market rally is quite reasonable," Eugene Investment & Securities analyst Lee Sang-jae said. "The biggest stimulus would be the U.S. Fed's strong determination to dismiss all kinds of fear factors. It is also hard to overlook a possible U.S. economic recovery and the coronavirus peak." However, most analysts say it is too early to anticipate a V-shaped recovery. "It is still uncertain whether or not the global stock market rally will continue," Lee said. "The effect on economic indicators of COVID-19 will be revealed this week, because the U.S. and China will announce their major economic indicators for March and April, when the virus began to spread rapidly in America." Mirae Asset Daewoo analyst Park Hee-chan expects global stock markets will become sluggish again, because business outlooks will be downgraded gradually as time passes. "It seems difficult to attach great importance to the recent rally in the U.S. stock market," he said. "We saw during the country's previous recession that the stock market plunged again after temporarily rallying around 20 percent due to aggressive policy measures." According to the Korea Financial Investment Association (KOFIA), most head analysts at the nation's eight major brokerages Mirae Asset Daewoo, Shinhan Investment, Hana Financial Investment, NH Investment & Securities, Korea Investment & Securities, Samsung Securities, KB Securities and Meritz Securities expect the domestic stock market to remain volatile throughout the first half of the year. They forecast any recovery will start in the second half at the earliest, mentioning business performance recovery and vaccine development as the two most important factors for a bullish stock market, according to KOFIA.
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