Reference:

This is a tale about the Duewell family siblings. They became a famous family of security analysts and portfolio managers. You have probably seen them on CNN. Isadora Duewell is the oldest and started the firm ("I Duewell").

When her twin siblings Ignatius (who was born at 11:56 P.M. on December 31^st 1970) and Ida (who was born at 12:02 A.M on January 1^st 1971), thereby becoming the only known twins to be born in different decades, were old enough, they joined the firm. Finally, little Ike, who not only was born (some say by mistake) in 1985, but also never grew beyond 5 feet 1 inch, joined the firm in 2007. They claim that one of the reasons they have done so well is that they use different techniques in doing their jobs. They are very competitive with one another and always struggle to gain bragging rights.

QUESTION:

On September 17^th 2001, CNN interviewed Ida and asked her when the market would fully recover from the events of September 11^th. Ida predicted that it would take one month. In an interview with Barron's that same day Ignatius predicted that the rebound would take between six months to one year as it typically has in the past in response to events of this ilk. On October 11^th, the market, as measured by the S&P 500, closed just above its September 10^th close. Per their usual bet, Ignatius had to buy lunch for Ida at Taco Bell. Besides the obvious effect of luck, how do you think Ida arrived at her prediction? How do you think Ignatius arrived at his prediction? Is Ida's methodology generally better than Ignatius'? Defend you answer.