Remember, the expected value of a probability distribution is a statistical measure of the average (mean) value expected to occur during all possible circumstances. To compute an assets expected return under a range of possible circumstances (or states of nature), multiply the anticipated return expected to result during each state of nature by its probability of occurrence.

Consider the following case:

Ethan owns a two-stock portfolio that invests in Celestial Crane Cosmetics Company (CCC) and Lumbering Ox Truckmakers (LOT). Three-quarters of Ethans portfolio value consists of CCCs shares, and the balance consists of LOTs shares.

Each stocks expected return for the next year will depend on forecasted market conditions. The expected returns from the stocks in different market conditions are detailed in the following table:

Market Condition	Probability of Occurrence	Celestial Crane Cosmetics	Lumbering Ox Truckmakers
Strong	0.20	12.5%	17.5%
Normal	0.35	7.5%	10%
Weak	0.45	-10%	-12.5%

Calculate expected returns for the individual stocks in Ethans portfolio as well as the expected rate of return of the entire portfolio over the three possible market conditions next year.