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Remember, the expected value of a probability distribution is a statistical measure of the average ( mean ) value expected to occur during all possible
Remember, the expected value of a probability distribution is a statistical measure of the average mean value expected to occur during all possible
circumstances. To compute an asset's expected return under a range of possible circumstances or states of nature multiply the anticipated return
expected to result during each state of nature by its probability of occurrence.
Consider the following case:
David owns a twostock portfolio that invests in Falcon Freight Company FF and Pheasant Pharmaceuticals PP Threequarters of
David's portfolio value consists of FFs shares, and the balance consists of PPs shares.
Each stock's expected return for the next year will depend on forecasted market conditions. The expected returns from the stocks in
different market conditions are detailed in the following table:
Calculate expected returns for the individual stocks in David's portfolio as well as the expected rate of return of the entire portfolio over the three
possible market conditions next year.
The expected rate of return on Falcon Freight's stock over the next year is
The expected rate of return on Pheasant Pharmaceuticals's stock over the next year is
The expected rate of return on David's portfolio over the next year is
The expected returns for David's portfolio were calculated based on three possible conditions in the market. Such conditions will vary from time to
time, and for each condition there will be a specific outcome. These probabilities and outcomes can be represented in the form of a continuous
probability distribution graph.
For example, the continuous probability distributions of rates of return on stocks for two different companies are shown on the following graph:
Based on the graph's information, which of the following statements is true?
Company A has lower risk.
Company B has lower risk.
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