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Respiratory viruses like the common cold can be transmitted through respiratory droplets present in the exhaled breath of infected individuals. Hand hygiene and the use

Respiratory viruses like the common cold can be transmitted through respiratory droplets present in the exhaled breath of infected individuals. Hand hygiene and the use of face masks are thought to be important strategies for preventing virus transmission. A study was recently conducted to explore the potential efficacy of surgical face masks to prevent respiratory virus transmission. Participants were recruited from an outpatient clinic of a private hospital in Taiwan. All participants were diagnosed as having the influenza virus through a rapid diagnostic test and virologic confirmation in a laboratory. Participants were randomly assigned to either wear a surgical face mask or not during the 30 minute collection phase, in which they were instructed to breathe as normal.4 The respiratory droplets in the exhaled breath particles were then analyzed to see whether influenza virus could be detected. The virus was detected in 8 of the 26 samples collected from those not wearing a surgical face mask and in 2 of the of the 28 samples collected from those wearing a face mask. i. Do these data suggest that wearing surgical face masks could be an effective public health intervention for reducing person-to-person transmission of respiratory viruses? Conduct a formal analysis and summarize the results in language accessible to someone who has not taken a course in statistics. ii. Compute the probability that under the null hypothesis, with the stated study design and observing 10 samples overall in which the virus is detected, that 9 samples positive for influenza virus were from the individuals wearing masks. iii. Suppose the results of this study will inform public policy on whether the use of masks and face coverings while in public should be mandatory during the COVID-19 pandemic. Comment on whether making a Type I or Type II error in this context has more serious consequences. Limit your response to no more than five sentences. iv. Is it possible to know whether the results from the analysis in part i. represent a Type II error? Explain your answer.

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