Riverside Inn Riverside Inn is a classic, old inn located in one of Wyomings beautiful cities. The inn is owned by the family of a former University of Wyoming student. They have asked you to help improve their forecast of the number of rooms rented for each month of the year. They gathered 3+ years of historical data for you to analyze (see the file Homework 4 Data.xlsx on WyoCourses). Tasks: Perform the four tasks outlined in the order provided below on the specified worksheets. 1. Using just the raw data, try three different times- series forecasting methods of your choice, except for nave. important: a 3-month moving average and 4-month moving average are not different methods, but a 3-month moving average and 3-month weighted moving average are different methods. For a weighted moving average, exponential smoothing, or Holts method please use Solver to find optimal values for weights, alpha, and beta as appropriate for the method. Compute either MAD or MAPE (but not both) for all three methods (to clarify, pick either MAD or MAPE and apply that same metric to all three methods). 2. You believe there might be seasonality inherent in this data set. On the Seasonal worksheet, go through the process of deseasonalizing the data and creating seasonal indices hint: seasons does not have to mean four periods per year, it does not have to mean summer / spring / fall / winter, it could mean something as strange as the 6th week of the year and the 38th week of the year ... try looking at the data in several different configurations beyond traditional seasons or quarters). Create a summary table for the seasonal indices on the Indices worksheet. 3. Try three different times-series forecasting methods of your choice, except for nave, using your DEseasonalized data on the Seasonal worksheet. These can be the same methods as those used in Task 1, or you can try new methods if you think they would work better for the deseasonalized data (again, note: a 3-month moving average and 4-month moving average are not different methods, but a 3-month moving average and 3-month weighted moving

2 average are). For a weighted moving average, exponential smoothing, or Holts method, use Solver to find the optimal values for weights, alpha, and beta as appropriate for the method. Compute either MAD or MAPE (not both) for all three methods (same caveat as above). 4. Generate a REseasonalized forecast for the rest of Year 4 (months 4 through 12) using your best deseasonalized forecasting method. Enter the value for month 4-4 (for the best method) in cell C2 on this worksheet, then use that value and the correct indices to calculate these forecasted values.

Year/ Month Time Period Rooms Rented 1-1 1 334 1-2 2 294 1-3 3 441 1-4 4 474 1-5 5 549 1-6 6 994 1-7 7 1,256 1-8 8 1,111 1-9 9 1,030 1-10 10 691 1-11 11 355 1-12 12 309 2-1 13 323 2-2 14 509 2-3 15 481 2-4 16 501 2-5 17 875 2-6 18 1,094 2-7 19 1,238 2-8 20 1,215 2-9 21 1,035 2-10 22 706 2-11 23 470 2-12 24 364 3-1 25 448 3-2 26 365 3-3 27 494 3-4 28 489 3-5 29 896 3-6 30 1,120 3-7 31 1,307 3-8 32 1,200 3-9 33 1,138 3-10 34 630 3-11 35 531 3-12 36 438 4-1 37 634 4-2 38 475 4-3 39 401

Year/ Month Time Period Rooms Rented 1-1 1 334 1-2 2 294 1-3 3 441 1-4 4 474 1-5 5 549 1-6 6 994 1-7 7 1,256 1-8 8 1,111 1-9 9 1,030 1-10 10 691 1-11 11 355 1-12 12 309 2-1 13 323 2-2 14 509 2-3 15 481 2-4 16 501 2-5 17 875 2-6 18 1,094 2-7 19 1,238 2-8 20 1,215 2-9 21 1,035 2-10 22 706 2-11 23 470 2-12 24 364 3-1 25 448 3-2 26 365 3-3 27 494 3-4 28 489 3-5 29 896 3-6 30 1,120 3-7 31 1,307 3-8 32 1,200 3-9 33 1,138 3-10 34 630 3-11 35 531 3-12 36 438 4-1 37 634 4-2 38 475 4-3 39 401

Selected Method: Deseasonal Forecast Value (Period 4-4) for Selected Method: Year/ Month Index Reseasonal Forecast 4-4 4-5 4-6 4-7 4-8 4-9 4-10 4-11 4-12

enter index and reason forecast