Rolling Recessions Are The Likely Economic Impact Of New Coronavirus And COVID-19

The new coronavirus, which causes the new disease COVID-19, is the major uncertainty in the global economy, with the potential to trigger a worldwide recession. The path of the disease and its economic consequences are highly uncertain. Most likely, the world will see rolling recessions as the disease spreads to different areas, with economic recovery as the local epidemics die down.

A coronavirus forecast comes not because the future is known with high certainty, but because businesses are making decisions every day that depend on the economic outlook. The rolling recession prediction is the most likely as of today (March 10, 2020) but may change as new information emerges.

The economic impacts of quarantines and travel restrictions are probably more severe than the direct effects of death and illness. Thus, we are trading off sickness against economic growth. Usually a strong economy bodes well for health, as prosperity brings better water and sanitation, better nutrition, more and better healthcare services. In fighting this epidemic, though, health and the economy come into conflict.