Question
Royal Rockrider (RR) purchased land that will be the site of a new luxury condominium complex. RR commissioned preliminary drawings for three different projects: one
Royal Rockrider (RR) purchased land that will be the site of a new luxury condominium complex. RR commissioned preliminary drawings for three different projects: one with 20 condominiums (a small complex), one with 50 condominiums (a medium complex), and one with 80 condominiums (a Large complex). The financial success of the project depends upon the size of the condominium complex and the chance concerning the demand for the condominiums. For the RR problem, the chance concerning the demand for the condominiums has two stated of nature: strong and weak. Let us also suppose that the RR can conduct a market research study to know the chance of success of its project. The market research study can result a favourable report or a Unfavourable report. The statement of the RR decision problem is to select the size of the new luxury condominium project that will lead to the largest profit given the uncertainty concerning the demand for the condominiums and also if the market study is needed. Formulate the Decision tree for RR problem with given probabilities: If the market research study is undertaken: Prob. (Favourable report) = 0.78,
Prob. (Unfavourable report) = 0.22. If the market research report is favourable: Prob. (strong demand) = 0.86, Prob. (weak demand) = 0.14 (for all sizes). If the market research report is unfavourable:
Prob. (strong demand) = 0.25, Prob. (weak demand) = 0.75 (for all sizes). If the market research report is not undertaken: Prob. (strong demand) = 0.8, Prob. (weak demand) = 0.2 (for all sizes). Solve the given Decision tree and calculate the expected value, the optimal expected value of the Decision tree and the optimal choice/action for RR
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