S - 5-7-2016 1.Given the following data, compute the MAD for the forecast. Year 2001 2002 2003 Demand 16 20 18 Forecast 18 19 24 2. Month March April May June July August Actual 20 25 40 35 30 45 If the forecast demand for June, July, and August is 32, 38, and 42, respectively, what is MAPD? Write your answer in decimal form and not in percentages. 3. Data from the last four weeks: Number of Ads Increased Sales 16 330 12 270 18 380 14 300 Use the equation of regression line to forecast the increased sales for when the number of ads is 10. 4. Given the following data on the number of pints of ice cream sold at local ice cream sore for a 6-period time frame. Period Demand 1 2 3 4 5 6 200 245 190 270 280 300 Compute a 3-period moving average for period 6. Use two places after the decimal. 5. Consider the following annual sales data for 2001-2008 Year 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Sales 2 4 10 8 14 18 17 20 Calculate the correlation coefficient. Use four significant digits after the decimal. 6. Daily highs in Sacramento for the past week were: 95, 102, 101, 96, 95, 90, and 92. Develop a forecast for today using a 2-day moving average. 7. Given the following data on the number of pints of ice cream sold at local ice cream sore for a 6-period time frame. Period Demand 7 8 9 10 11 12 200 245 190 270 280 300 Compute a 3-period moving average for period 4. Use two places after the decimal. 8. The following sales data are available for 2003-2008. Year Demand 2003 7 2004 12 2005 14 2006 20 2007 16 2008 25 Compute a 4-year weighted moving average forecast for 2009, where weights are W1=0.1, W2=0.2, W3=0.2, and W4=0.5. 9. The following sales data are available for 2003-2008. Year 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Sales 7 12 14 20 16 25 Forecast 9 10 15 22 18 21 Compute the absolute value of the average error. Use three significant digits after the decimal. 10. Consider the following probability distribution. Demand 1 2 3 4 5 Probability 0.15 0.30 0.25 0.15 0.15 Partition 100 numbers 0 to 99 according to the probability of each demand value, starting with 0. A number from the 100 numbers is going to be selected. What is the corresponding demand value if 62 is selected? 11. The local operations manager for the IRS must decide whether to hire 1, 2 or 3 temporary workers. He estimates that net revenues will vary with how well taxpayers comply with the new tax code. The following payoff table is given in thousands of dollars (e.g. 50 = $50,000). No. of workers Low Medium High Compliance Compliance Compliance 1 50 50 50 2 100 60 .20 3 150 70 -10 If he uses the maximum, how many new workers will he hire? 12. An automotive center keeps track of customer complaints received each week. The probability distribution for complaints can be represented as a table or a graph, both shown below. The random variable xi represents the number of complaints and p(xi) is the probability of receiving xi complaints. xi p(xi) 0 .10 1 .15 2 .18 3 .20 4 .20 5 .10 6 .07 What is the average number of complaints received per week? Round your answer to two places after the decimal. 13. An online sweepstakes has the following payoffs and probabilities. Each person is limited to one entry. Payoff Probability $1.00 0.1000 $5.00 0.0100 $10.00 0.0050 $100.00 0.0010 $1,000.00 0.0005 $5,000.00 0.0001 The probability of winning at least $1,000 is _____? 14. A fair die is rolled 8 times. What is the probability that an even number (2,4,6) will occur between 2 and 4 times? Round your answer to four places after the decimal. 15. The drying rate in an industrial process is dependent on many factors and varies according to the following distribution. Minutes Relative Frequency 3 0.22 4 0.36 5 0.28 6 0.10 7 0.04 Compute the mean drying time. Use two decimal places after the decimal