S w 9B12E008 PGA GOLF: IS SUNDAY MADE-FOR-TV? Richard Ivey School of Business Foundation prohibits any form of reproduction, storage or transmission without its written permission. Reproduction of this material is not covered under authorization by any reproduction rights organization. To order copies or request permission to reproduce materials, contact Ivey Publishing, Richard Ivey School of Business Foundation, The University of Western Ontario, London, Ontario, Canada, N6A 3K7; phone (519) 661-3208; fax (519) 661-3882; e-mail cases@ivey.uwo.ca. Educational material supplied by The Case Centre Copyright encoded A76HM-JUJ9K-PJMN9I Order reference F258633 Copyright 2012, Richard Ivey School of Business Foundation Version: 2012-10-26 Colin McDougall, a golf enthusiast and former NCAA golfer at the University of Tampa, was watching the final round of a recent golf tournament with Chris Higgins, the resident statistician at the Richard Ivey School of Business. Higgins, an avid golfer himself, was amazed at the low scores being made on this particular Sunday. McDougall, however, was not impressed. He explained that scores on Sundays are always lower than scores on Thursdays for the benefit of television ratings. \"Fans want to see golfers making birdies so the golf courses are set up to be easier on Sunday,\" said McDougall. Higgins countered that all the pressure facing the golfers on Sunday would surely raise their scores, and the television coverage would increase the pressure. McDougall was not convinced. \"Too bad we don't have the data\" he said. It would make an interesting study. In this particular tournament, a young unknown was leading the field. McDougall believed that the younger players were taking over. McDougall, who was over 40 himself, lamented, \"Once you hit 40 you are simply not competitive anymore.\" As the final round progressed, McDougall and Higgins discussed how they would use the data if they were accessible. Questions they raised and discussed included the following: Are scores different from the first day to the last day? Are scores different across the four rounds? Are young people doing better than those who are older? Do long hitters have lower scores? How important is driving accuracy in determining one's score? Do people putt for \"dough\" and drive for show? These were interesting questions. An email to the Professional Golfers Association (PGA) headquarters revealed that PGA scoring statistics were available to academics for research purposes. Within a few days, Higgins had his PGA data (ShotLinkTM data is \"Powered by ShotLinkTM ) and set about trying to answer the various questions posed by McDougall. Copies of the dataset are available from the author. Information on the dataset is given in Exhibit 1. Information on the basics of PGA golf tournaments is given in Exhibit 2. case centre Distributed by The Case Centre www.thecasecentre.org All rights reserved North America t +1 781 239 5884 f +1 781 239 5885 e info.usa@thecasecentre.org Rest of the world t +44 (0)1234 750903 f +44 (0)1234 751125 e info@thecasecentre.org Purchased for use on the Msc in Digital Marketing, at DCU Business School. Taught by Graham Hunt, from 22-Oct-2015 to 22-Apr-2016. Order ref F258633. Usage permitted only within these parameters otherwise contact info@thecasecentre.org Chris Higgins wrote this case solely to provide material for class discussion. The author does not intend to illustrate either effective or ineffective handling of a managerial situation. The author may have disguised certain names and other identifying information to protect confidentiality. Page 2 9B12E008 Exhibit 1 PlayerNumber Age FedExCupPoints Money Round1Score Round2Score Round3Score Round4Score Total Strokes Average Drive Drive_Rank Percent_Birdie_when_GIR Percent_Fairways Percent_GIR Putt_Round Percent_10foot Percent_Outside10 Unique number identifying the player Player age FedEx Cup points Average money won per tournament Average strokes in Round 1 Average strokes in Round 2 Average strokes in Round 3 Average strokes in Round 4 Average strokes per tournament Average driving distance Driving rank Percent birdies made when green is hit in regulation Percent of drives in fairway Percent greens hit in regulation Average Putts per round Percent of putts inside 10' made Percent of putts outside 10' made The original data came from ShotLinkTM. ShotLinkTM data is \"Powered by ShotLinkTM. The data were modified to show 270 unique golfers and a summary of what they accomplished in all tournaments where they played four rounds (i.e., made the cut). Used with permission. Purchased for use on the Msc in Digital Marketing, at DCU Business School. Taught by Graham Hunt, from 22-Oct-2015 to 22-Apr-2016. Order ref F258633. Usage permitted only within these parameters otherwise contact info@thecasecentre.org Educational material supplied by The Case Centre Copyright encoded A76HM-JUJ9K-PJMN9I Order reference F258633 PROFESSIONAL GOLFERS ASSOCIATION DATA Page 3 9B12E008 Exhibit 2 THE BASICS OF PROFESSIONAL GOLFERS ASSOCIATION GOLF TOURNAMENTS Educational material supplied by The Case Centre Copyright encoded A76HM-JUJ9K-PJMN9I Order reference F258633 Golf courses have three types of holes: par 3s, par 4s and par 5s. Making par on the hole means the golfer took the expected number of shots. For example, on a par 3 hole, a golfer is expected to score 3, which includes the first shot to the green and two putts. On a par 4, the golfer is expected to take two shots to hit the green and then two putts. On a par 5, the golfer is expected to take three shots to hit the green and then two putts. A golfer is said to have hit the green in regulation (GIR) when the golfer gets on the green in one shot on a par 3 hole, two shots on a par 4 hole and three shots on a par 5 hole. On par 4 and par 5 holes, the first shot off the tee is called a drive. Golfers try to land their ball in the fairway, where the grass is cut short and it is easier to hit the next shot. The area off the fairways, where the grass is longer, is called the rough. A high percentage of drives in the fairway (percent fairways) is considered good and typically leads to lower scores. On par 3 holes, the first shot is not considered a drive. Putting is hugely important in golf. Putting takes place on the greens. Two putts are considered the norm, so sinking the first putt obviously leads to lower scores. Given there are 18 holes in a round of golf, the expected number of putts is 36. Any fewer putts is good. Purchased for use on the Msc in Digital Marketing, at DCU Business School. Taught by Graham Hunt, from 22-Oct-2015 to 22-Apr-2016. Order ref F258633. Usage permitted only within these parameters otherwise contact info@thecasecentre.org Virtually every Professional Golfers Association (PGA) tournament is four rounds of golf with the golfer having the lowest total score being declared the winner. Most tournaments start with approximately 156 players. After two rounds of golf, the number of golfers is reduced (usually by 50 per cent) based on the total scores over those two rounds. Those players who qualify to play the final two rounds (on Saturday and Sunday) are said to have \"made the cut.\" PlayerNumb Age FedExCupPointsMoney Round1Scor Round2Scor Round3Scor Round4Score TotalStroke AverageDri Drive_rank Percent_BirPercent_FaiPercent_GIR Putt_round Percent_10fPercent_Out 1116 44 24.166667 22815.912 69.666667 70.333333 71.166667 70.833333 -1.166666 282 278.5506 151 0.241882 57.142857 68.518519 29.458333 89.02025 13.43167 1226 51 40.833333 81026.833 68.666667 69.666667 69.333333 72.666667 -4 280.33333 290.01191 30 0.284722 61.309524 67.12963 29.5 88.269171 13.577381 1249 44.5 8.6075 14238.75 68.75 70.25 73 73.5 -4.75 285.5 288.07441 48 0.303051 54.910714 65.277778 31.666667 85.76375 12.305239 1313 48 10.75 12813.335 68 71.5 73.5 73.5 -5.5 286.5 270.90179 229 0.292421 66.964286 59.722222 28.125 89.444444 21.557072 1320 45 0.94 12028 71 76 73 77 -6 297 274.92857 195 0.25 46.428571 55.555556 29.5 82.5 13.157895 1388 42 19.5 16336.67 68 72 74 75 -7 289 278.53571 152 0.204545 58.928571 61.111111 29.75 79.012346 15.789474 1473 45 29 21840 72 70 69 69 3 280 286.42857 65 0.244898 57.142857 68.055556 29 86.419753 5.714286 1577 46 14.6392 15571.726 69.8 69.8 74.4 70.8 -1 284.8 274.10714 203 0.271698 65.279221 61.666667 34.3 88.570076 16.659645 1619 46 0.99 11940 75 73 75 75 0 298 260 267 0.21875 60.714286 45.833333 27.25 91.549296 13.157895 1677 51 32.5 28060 65 72 69 69 -4 275 293.48214 15 0.206897 67.857143 80.555556 30.5 94.117647 12.962963 1706 46.428571 40.683714 72387.651 69.857143 69.285714 69.857143 71.714286 -1.857143 280.71429 286.53061 64 0.284359 58.59462 69.84127 33.75 86.774916 13.37526 1724 46.6 17.8 18060.35 72.6 70.2 70.6 73.2 -0.6 286.6 277.425 168 0.299193 67.766234 63.888889 35.1 84.602853 13.128719 1766 44 35.625 54140.313 69.75 70.875 72.375 70.375 -0.625 283.375 276.99628 173 0.284612 67.410714 64.756944 30.104167 86.679044 12.769505 1797 48 18.875 26123.7 72.25 71.75 73.25 74.5 -2.25 291.75 271.8747 219.5 0.273861 72.202381 64.583333 29.5625 84.986409 10.808271 1810 40 115.9543 232559.15 70.1 69.4 70.1 70.1 0 279.7 291.16369 21 0.367689 53.152597 66.25 32.225 87.89765 15.132027 1887 54 0.92 18240 66 74 79 77 -11 296 267.44643 253 0.302326 60.714286 59.722222 29.25 88.732394 15.217391 1928 51 18.5 21188 70.5 70 75 70.5 0 286 247.03571 270 0.238798 66.964286 59.027778 28.25 85.143288 18.855535 1941 51 20 15660 73 68 69 75 -2 285 262.25 265 0.307692 76.363636 54.166667 54 88.888889 23.529412 1945 50 28 29578.25 71.5 71.5 70.5 72 -0.5 285.5 271.98214 218 0.272449 69.642857 69.444444 30.25 87.893541 5.694444 1948 44 27.694286 36785.38 69.428571 70 73 70.857143 -1.428572 283.28571 274.26276 201 0.278244 63.265306 61.507937 28.75 88.954901 15.078267 1968 54 15 12996 70 74 73 72 -2 289 261.98214 266 0.121951 73.214286 56.944444 29.25 90.277778 13.333333 1978 46 15 14798.33 70 66.5 71 74.5 -4.5 282 289.79464 32 0.284444 60.714286 65.972222 29.5 87.718098 10.83043 2076 51 0 40250 75 73 73 75 0 296 257.05357 268 0.121951 58.928571 56.944444 29.75 83.333333 12.195122 2206 44 183.75 435262.8 67.666667 67.166667 70.5 69.833333 -2.166666 275.16667 274.18704 202 0.301268 74.130037 73.842593 28.75 88.451319 16.438596 2214 49 22 14806.4 73 68 72 68 5 281 276.125 185 0.184211 69.642857 52.777778 27.75 88 11.111111 2239 46 64.416667 122442 71.833333 69.333333 69.5 71.333333 0.5 282 270.63393 231 0.297649 69.345238 67.592593 28.5 86.909703 14.346693 6004 46.2 27.9 45038.8 71.8 69 71 71.8 0 283.6 272.76429 211 0.265942 67.857143 65.277778 29.1 88.212274 13.122365 6034 47 29 21840 68 72 69 71 -3 280 284.48214 84 0.204545 58.928571 61.111111 28.5 89.189189 12.5 6197 52 10 13734 74 70 66 77 -3 287 271.82143 222 0.282609 78.181818 63.888889 58 85 9.52381 6251 42 34.9375 41022.154 69.25 69.125 71.75 70.25 -1 280.375 269.00446 243 0.320312 67.816558 63.020833 31.59375 88.685161 17.559356 6515 42 14.333333 19611.167 70.833333 71.333333 71.5 73.833333 -3 287.5 272.88484 209 0.240443 57.119963 58.101852 28.583333 88.028441 13.792982 6522 41 18.995 28404.443 71.833333 70.5 72.5 73 -1.166667 287.83333 283.73512 96.5 0.260237 58.035714 68.518519 30.708333 83.882426 13.321635 6527 43.625 128.556625 279279.24 69.125 68.875 67.75 70.75 -1.625 276.5 278.27158 159 0.35671 65.997024 68.055556 27.65625 89.045975 17.629501 6567 47.636364 71.831182 138204.54 69.454545 69.545455 70.363636 70.909091 -1.454546 280.27273 285.60227 70 0.327419 61.38407 67.424242 32.742424 86.073862 16.362719 6573 45 55.136364 96297.955 69.272727 70.727273 70.636364 70.090909 -0.818182 280.72727 285.5855 71 0.314407 65.25974 68.939394 30.212121 86.508282 15.407936 6595 46 40.75 68173.213 69.25 69.25 71 73.75 -4.5 283.25 278.85566 148 0.293966 58.618881 67.361111 39.375 86.890971 12.618877 6621 46.5 36.5 43121.333 68.25 70 70 71.25 -3 279.5 273.17869 207 0.261726 75.858516 70.138889 31.333333 87.564815 18.209129 6643 46 48.021444 117702.54 71.777778 69.888889 71.444444 72.777778 -1 285.88889 270.19907 235 0.268495 67.460317 62.808642 30.268519 84.885943 15.193797 7457 43.333333 25.047778 36613.222 71 70.888889 71.222222 71 0 284.11111 271.15278 228 0.309251 62.698413 55.555556 27.666667 89.973923 14.324132 7707 45 0 12152 72 69 71 72 0 284 280.89286 126 0.277778 44.642857 50 27 87.5 22.222222 7749 41 36.5 34965 72 65 75 71 1 283 268.28571 246 0.340909 72.727273 61.111111 56.5 87.179487 11.764706 7867 47 23.75 19040.25 72 71 72.5 71 1 286.5 272.22047 216 0.299899 61.675824 61.805556 28 86.793009 23.095823 8075 44 58.214286 96923.596 69.714286 68.714286 70.428571 69.714286 0 278.57143 267.14031 254 0.262693 69.642857 64.087302 28.392857 91.21206 14.306438 8375 41 22.75 22298.167 70.333333 70 71.166667 71.833333 -1.5 283.33333 275.62302 190 0.289931 55.844156 62.731481 35 88.828356 15.968611 8537 45 23.626667 24220.75 73 69.666667 72.333333 75.333333 -2.333333 290.33333 269.71429 239 0.284784 59.52381 54.62963 28.166667 83.960617 15.054486 8725 42 59.32 121867.83 68.666667 70 71.666667 72 -3.333333 282.33333 283.33532 100 0.297721 68.993506 66.203704 35.486111 85.010801 18.298126 8793 35 45.966667 65232 70.666667 70.333333 72.666667 71 -0.333333 284.66667 284.34921 88 0.287045 47.619048 67.592593 32.444444 86.721289 18.995596 9011 39 23.401667 51957.833 73.166667 70.333333 73 72.666667 0.5 289.16667 285.1756 76 0.3069 50.514069 61.805556 35.791667 83.635878 15.627708 10213 41 20.75 23205.5 73.5 68.5 71 74 -0.5 287 278.83929 149 0.288084 69.642857 62.5 28.875 83.772152 15.650407 10423 40 0.84 10788 72 70 78 75 -3 295 269.02381 242 0.3 37.5 55.555556 38.666667 89.655172 6.666667 10505 40.75 20.70675 19400 70.75 67 71.75 72 -1.25 281.5 271.85268 221 0.252901 69.066558 64.583333 36.4375 85.614592 14.742601 10585 45 19 16388.223 70.666667 71.333333 72.666667 71.666667 -1 286.33333 275.79167 187 0.298337 64.155844 61.111111 38.833333 86.420921 12.287509 10733 44 25.067143 25072.669 70.428571 70 70.571429 72.285714 -1.857143 283.28571 270.59988 232 0.284586 64.56044 65.079365 28.892857 88.603679 19.810408 10809 40.142857 44.571429 70336.667 71 69.571429 70.285714 70.857143 0.142857 281.71429 270.80436 230 0.292948 65.953689 65.674603 28.571429 88.014353 16.328025 10860 38 25.851429 34728.393 70.857143 71.428571 71.714286 71.571429 -0.714286 285.57143 273.81221 204 0.250765 65.502355 64.087302 28.928571 88.466193 16.09679 10885 39 47.8 84941.231 70.8 70.9 69.4 70.5 0.3 281.6 282.77857 106 0.282318 63.571429 69.583333 29.45 87.166771 14.331515 10944 40 0 73000 71 73 70 71 0 285 276.89286 174 0.318182 62.5 61.111111 28.25 86.842105 13.513514 11032 41 23.6175 33662.575 71 70.5 70 73 -2 284.5 293.58036 13 0.348136 51.785714 61.111111 27.75 86.308162 20.709459 11123 37.454545 34.181818 53475.5 69.181818 69.272727 71.272727 72.545455 -3.363637 282.27273 287.22199 57 0.33153 66.208791 63.131313 29.340909 88.704146 20.540017 12510 36.1 37.7953 52163.653 70.3 70.7 70.7 70.6 -0.3 282.3 277.81703 164 0.253566 64.107143 70.138889 29.975 86.1514 11.941844 12602 41 31.282667 42837.405 70.333333 68.833333 70.5 71.833333 -1.5 281.5 264.7239 262 0.301462 67.374709 63.425926 32.875 88.06644 17.651628 12652 40.4 44.68 59369.93 69.2 69.8 69 69.8 -0.6 277.8 278.35493 158 0.373606 65.17033 67.5 28.05 87.290123 24.225722 12660 45 13.25 13219.5 69.5 69.5 71.5 74 -4.5 284.5 275.66071 189 0.3375 60.422078 56.25 41.375 90.660025 19.404762 12680 41 87.5 177375 65 65 70 69 -4 269 269.14286 241 0.454545 44.642857 61.111111 26.75 92.753623 15.789474 12716 34 53.181818 85593.977 68.727273 72.090909 70 70.636364 -1.909091 281.45455 289.54491 35 0.37159 63.832834 66.666667 28.613636 85.672832 15.720553 12782 40.857143 55.071429 91244.339 70.142857 69.285714 71.714286 69.857143 0.285714 281 280.40561 132 0.309621 54.846939 66.666667 30.190476 89.111858 15.902751 19824 38 6.5 11816 70 72 71 72 -2 285 286.08929 68 0.23913 55.357143 63.888889 29.75 88.888889 17.021277 19846 39 40.324727 60842.786 69.818182 70.636364 69.818182 70.909091 -1.090909 281.18182 266.87762 257 0.277073 74.188312 62.878788 28.022727 89.130448 17.781144 19881 38 7.5 12780 73 72 73 76 -3 294 266.98214 255 0.111111 71.428571 62.5 30.5 89.61039 6.666667 19958 47 0 45500 71 72 73 76 -5 292 271.41071 225 0.297297 57.142857 51.388889 27.25 91.176471 21.95122 19970 #NULL! 83 167348.5 70 69 71.166667 70.833333 -0.833333 281 281.09524 123 0.321995 57.440476 63.888889 28.791667 85.95832 15.727596 20070 35.444444 40.638889 66150.45 68.555556 69.666667 70.888889 72 -3.444444 281.11111 281.89828 114 0.333584 58.106061 65.123457 31.5 89.120029 19.581661 20095 40 10.5 13260 69 66 71 69 0 275 272.78571 210 0.3125 76.785714 66.666667 28.75 93.846154 20 20098 39.125 43.709375 74023.308 68.75 69.125 71.125 71.625 -2.875 280.625 278.80665 150 0.297112 54.918831 66.319444 33.4375 90.078577 15.183975 20127 37 28.857143 37576.794 68.142857 71.142857 72.428571 72.142857 -4 283.85714 270.21507 234 0.26973 68.494006 62.103175 32.75 85.9944 15.722122 20157 42 45.9815 83702.5 70.166667 71.666667 68.833333 71.666667 -1.5 282.33333 279.73306 142 0.317959 61.126374 63.657407 28.75 89.2492 15.722221 20160 39 47.994545 88000.106 70.272727 69.909091 70.181818 72.909091 -2.636364 283.27273 276.30574 181 0.306911 62.302243 62.626263 31.545455 90.090028 19.287502 20229 37.2 42.6953 69221.133 69.6 70.5 71.1 71.3 -1.7 282.5 280.63141 130 0.292415 58.502747 67.777778 29.866667 88.637444 13.697841 20396 37.25 0 73676.163 69.25 71.25 72 68 1.25 280.5 288.55804 44 0.330363 56.696429 69.444444 29.1875 87.197978 16.589089 20436 37 37.192 60621.2 68.8 70.2 71.6 73.2 -4.4 283.8 273.09396 208 0.28867 70.494505 65 30.683333 86.137567 13.855714 20472 40 25.5575 26158.248 69.875 71 69.25 74 -4.125 284.125 270.01837 236 0.25933 65.524788 65.451389 32.59375 85.068834 14.180698 20498 38.5 20.348 24952.5 70.5 70.5 69 73 -2.5 283 276.58929 178 0.220488 69.642857 69.444444 29.5 87.595129 14.251208 20572 41 50.8 94751.626 71 68.2 70.4 72 -1 281.6 280.575 131 0.301952 62.857143 59.444444 27.85 87.688523 17.868715 20574 36 0 16157.15 70 74 72 69 1 285 296.30357 8 0.25 46.428571 66.666667 29 89.333333 12.195122 20593 37 30.68375 41674.146 71.625 68.875 71.25 71.75 -0.125 283.5 268.42336 245 0.298605 58.928571 56.944444 28.3125 89.969637 18.854231 20645 39.416667 47.47225 76365.344 69.833333 69.333333 70.333333 71.583333 -1.75 281.08333 281.25595 121 0.288897 65.911172 70.023148 29.5625 89.022739 14.487832 20766 39 20848 41 20850 37 20859 40 21209 31 21284 #NULL! 21350 34 21407 37.7 21528 34.333333 21731 36 21753 36 21805 39 21878 36 21949 36.6 21959 37 21961 31 22046 33.166667 22056 37 22293 36.8 22348 39 22371 29.545455 22378 31 22405 30 22621 33.285714 22792 #NULL! 22892 36 22913 35.125 22961 36.75 23108 32 23135 35 23320 34 23322 37 23325 34.555556 23349 35 23353 35.461538 23409 33 23497 36 23541 34.666667 23548 35 23614 40 23621 34.3 23623 35.375 23638 30 23673 35 23718 35.166667 23788 30 23800 32 23814 #NULL! 23983 33 24024 34.8 24083 #NULL! 24138 34.857143 24140 28 24290 34.5 24357 40.222222 24358 33 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