Salinity in Quebec river is a combination of tides and rain. Rain that diluted the salt occurs about 10% of the time, while the non salty outgoing tides occurs twice per day. You take your dog for a walk down by the river at random during the weekend and notice that he'll drink from the river 30% of the time when the salt is sufficiently low.

Question

somebody else points that it's more likely to rain in the afternoon. You happen to be the time of year when half the tides are also occurring in the afternoon ( the others occur roughly 12 hours later during the night) if the probability of rain during this outgoing tide period increases to 15 % what is the probability of there being an afternoon tide during a rain ?