Question
Say you are a stock investor. You are considering to invest in TESLA. To that end, you download the stocks historical price data given in
Say you are a stock investor. You are considering to invest in TESLA. To that end, you download the stocks historical price data given in Computer Exercise 2.xlsx. More precisely, you analyze the daily market-closing stock prices from June 29, 2010 to December 31, 2018. Please answer the following questions. 1. To start, you want to get an idea of the daily return that you could have obtained by buying on one trading day and selling on the next (assuming that there are no dividends). Compute the daily net return; i.e. the proportionate change in prices. 2. Now you want to know on how many of the total trading days in your sample you would have made a positive net return. What is the number of days on which your net return would have been positive? 3. You decided that you want to invest in TESLA. Say that the outcome of your experiment (i.e. your investment) that you are interested in is whether you will win a positive net return on the first day or not. That is, you define a Bernoulli random variable, X, that can take on values 1 (positive net return on first day), and 0 (zero or negative net return on first day). Since you dont know how to otherwise approach the question (you are a first-time investor), you decide that the likelihood of successes in the past should be an indication of the future probability of success. Hence, what is the probability of success (i.e. positive net return) based on the 2010-2018 sample? 4. What is the expected value/population mean of your Bernoulli variable X? 5. What are the (population) variance and standard deviation of X? Having computed the latter, comment on how good your guess for X (i.e. the expected value in 4.) really is. 6. Is the distribution of X symmetric about its mean? Why or why not? 7. Instead, now assume that your investment horizon is 12 trading days, where on each day you either can gain a positive net return (Xi=1) or a negative net return (Xi=0). Assume that the random variables Xi, i=1, 2,,12, are independent. The probability of success is still the same as in question 3. above, and it is the same for all i. What is the probability that you will make a positive net return on 7 (out of the in total 12) following trading days? 8. Under the same assumptions as in question 7. above, what is the probability that you will make a positive net return on more than 10 (out of the in total 12) following trading days?
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