Schoemaker, P. J., & Tetlock, P. E. (2016). Superforecasting: How to upgrade your companys judgment. Harvard Business Review, 94(5), 73-78

1)What error did the National

Intelligence Council make in October

2002?

1)They underestimated Iraq's

defense capability.

2)They claimed Iraq had weapons of

mass destruction.

3)They incorrectly predicted the

U.S. election outcome.

4) They overestimated Iraq's GDP.

2) What are traders at Susquehanna

International Group trained to play?

1)Bridge 2)Stock market simulations

3)Poker

4)Chess

3) What do Brier scores close to zero indicate?

1)Forecast error is large

2)The prediction was inaccurate

3)The prediction was more accurate

4)No predictions were made

4) What is the significance of defining success as making the most of the hand you are dealt in the context of poker training at Susquehanna

International Group?

1)To adopt a long-term, strategic

view on challenges and opportunities

2)To ensure every round is won

3)To encourage risky behavior

4)To maximize short-term gains

5) Which term refers to the error where an early estimate skews subsequent opinions for too long?

1)Misdirection

2)Refraction

3)Anchoring

4) Evaluation

6)What do predictions that fall into the

'sweet spot' require?

1)Only analytical tools

2)Pure guesswork

3)Both data, logic, and analysis, as well as seasoned judgment

4)Only seasoned judgment

7) Which type of bias can create false confidence in predictions?

1)Confirmation bias

2) Anchoring bias

3) Negativity bias

4)Hindsight bias

8)What did the U.S. intelligence community seek to improve?

1)Public relations

2)Budgetary planning

3) Forecasting ability

4)Operational efficiency

9)What was Paul's experiment with the University of Chicago MBA subjects about?

1)Weather forecasting

2)Gold medals at the Olympics

3)Stock market prediction

4)Forecasting exam results

10)Which of these is NOT a philosophical approach and outlook mentioned in the text?

1)Humble

2)Dominant

3)Nondeterministic

4)Cautious

11) Which of these factors affects predictions made by organizations and individuals?

1)The geographical location of the

company

2)Susceptibility to cognitive biases

3)The age of the forecaster

4)Aesthetics of the presentation

12) Why is trust among members critical for prediction teams?

1)Because it improves individual

performances

2)Because they need to have

friendly relationships

3)Because it leads to faster results

4) Because they might expose poor forecasting abilities of some members

13) How should predictions be expressed to be precisely scored later?

1)As descriptive stories

2)As vague possibilities

3)As numeric probabilities

4)As general feelings

14)How can teams influence forecasts, as per the Good Judgment Project?

1)They worsen the forecasts

2)They make no difference to the

forecasts

3)They make the forecasts

completely accurate

4)They improve the forecasts

15)What's a common error in basic reasoning, as mentioned in the passage?

1)Assuming a coin will land tails

after three heads

2)Trusting only expert opinion

3) Believing in the supernatural

4)Relying on gut feeling all the time