SECTION A: This is a compulsory question (Total 40 marks) Question 1 Marli Limited manufactures security equipment used extensively by the financial services industry. The company incurs significant research costs in developing its products to meet the demands of this highly competitive market. The company's research team has recently developed a new piece of software which they believe will significantly improve detection rates and will lead to significant cost savings for its clients. The company had carried out a viability study at a cost of $ 80,000 which indicates that the new product will generate the following estimated net cash flows for the company Year $'000 0 1-4 (600,000) 240,000 Required: a) Calculate the Net Present Value for the project based on the estimated net cash flows shown above. The company uses a cost of capital of 13%. (4 marks) Unfortunately a rumoured development by a competitor now makes the project subject to much greater uncertainty and the board has asked you to incorporate this uncertainty into the net present value calculation. The project will still require the same cash outlay of $600,000 in year O however the future cash flows are now in greater doubt and the following revised outcomes are now possible: Outcome 1 2 3 4 Year 1 Probability Year 2-4 Probability $'000 $'000 200 0.5 320 0.6 200 0.5 240 0.4 280 0.5 240 0.7 280 0.5 0 0.3 Required: b) Calculate the Expected Net Present Value and the standard deviation for the project based on the revised cash flows. You must show all workings. (24 marks) c) Using the z statistic calculate the probability of the project having a negative Net Present Value (4 marks) d) Evaluate the results of your calculations and advise Macli whether they should proceed with the project or not. (8 marks) TOTAL 40 MARKS Present Value Table Interest rates (0) 5% 6% Periods 1% 2% 3% 4% 7% 8% 9% 10% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 0.990 0.980 0.971 0.961 0.951 0.942 0.933 0.923 0.914 0.905 0.896 0.887 0.879 0.870 0.861 0.853 0.844 0.836 0.828 0.820 0.980 0.961 0.942 0.924 0.906 0.888 0.871 0.853 0.837 0.820 0.804 0.788 0.773 0.758 0.743 0.728 0.714 0.700 0.686 0.673 0.971 0.943 0.915 0.888 0.863 0.837 0.813 0.789 0.766 0.744 0.722 0.701 0.681 0.661 0.642 0.623 0.605 0.587 0.570 0.554 0.962 0.925 0.889 0.855 0.822 0.790 0.760 0.731 0.703 0.676 0.650 0.625 0.601 0.577 0.555 0.534 0.513 0.494 0.475 0.456 0.952 0.907 0.864 0.823 0.784 0.746 0.711 0.677 0.645 0.614 0.585 0.557 0.530 0.505 0.481 0.458 0.436 0.416 0.396 0.377 0.943 0.890 0.840 0.792 0.747 0705 0.665 0.627 0.592 0.558 0.527 0.497 0.469 0.442 0.417 0.394 0.371 0.350 0.331 0.312 0.935 0.873 0.816 0.763 0.713 0.666 0.623 0.582 0.544 0.508 0.475 0.444 0.415 0.388 0.362 0.339 0.317 0.296 0.277 0.258 0.926 0.857 0.794 0.735 0.681 0.630 0.583 0.540 0.500 0.463 0.429 0.397 0.368 0.340 0.315 0.292 0.270 0.250 0.232 0.215 0.917 0.842 0.772 0.708 0.650 0.596 0.547 0.502 0.460 0.422 0.388 0.356 0.326 0.299 0.275 0.252 0.231 0.212 0.194 0.178 0.909 0.826 0.751 0.683 0.621 0.564 0.513 0.467 0.424 0.386 0.350 0.319 0.290 0.263 0.239 0.218 0.198 0.180 0.164 0.149 16 17 18 19 20 Interest rates (1) 15% Periods 11% 12% 13% 14% 16% 17% 18% 19% 20% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 0.901 0.812 0.731 0.659 0.593 0.535 0.482 0.434 0.391 0.352 0.317 0.286 0.258 0.232 0.209 0.188 0.170 0.153 0.138 0.124 0.893 0.797 0.712 0.636 0.567 0.507 0.452 0.404 0.361 0.322 0.287 0.257 0.229 0.205 0.183 0.163 0.146 0.130 0.116 0.104 0.885 0.783 0.693 0.613 0.543 0.480 0.425 0.376 0.333 0.295 0.261 0.231 0.204 0.181 0.160 0.141 0.125 0.111 0.098 0.087 0.877 0.769 0.675 0.592 0.519 0.456 0.400 0.351 0.308 0.270 0.237 0.208 0.182 0.160 0.140 0.123 0.108 0.095 0.083 0.073 0.870 0.756 0.658 0.572 0.497 0.432 0.376 0.327 0.284 0.247 0.215 0.187 0.163 0.141 0.123 0.107 0.093 0.081 0.070 0.061 0.862 0.743 0.641 0.552 0.476 0.410 0.354 0.305 0.263 0.227 0.195 0.168 0.145 0.125 0.108 0.093 0.080 0.069 0.060 0.051 0.855 0.731 0.624 0.534 0.456 0.390 0.333 0.285 0.243 0.208 0.178 0.152 0.130 0.111 0.095 0.081 0.069 0.059 0.051 0.043 0.847 0.718 0.609 0.516 0.437 0.370 0.314 0.266 0.225 0.191 0.162 0.137 0.116 0.099 0.084 0.071 0.060 0.051 0.043 0.037 0.840 0.706 0.593 0.499 0.419 0.352 0.296 0.249 0.209 0.176 0.148 0.124 0.104 0.088 0.079 0.062 0.052 0.044 0.037 0.031 0.833 0.694 0.579 0.482 0.402 0.335 0.279 0.233 0.194 0.162 0.135 0.112 0.093 0.078 0.065 0.054 0.045 0.038 0.031 0.026 Cumulative Present Value Table Periods (n) 1 2 3 9% 0.917 1.759 2.531 3.240 3.890 6 7 8 9 10 1% 0.990 1.970 2.941 3.902 4.853 5.795 6.728 7.652 8.566 9.471 10.368 11.255 12.134 13.004 13.865 14.718 15.562 16.398 17.226 18.046 2% 0.980 1.942 2.884 3.808 4.713 5.601 6.472 7.325 8.162 8.983 9.787 10.575 11.348 12.106 12.849 13.578 14.292 14.992 15.679 16.351 3% 0.971 1.913 2.829 3.717 4.580 5.417 6.230 7.020 7.786 8.530 9.253 9.954 10.635 11.296 11.938 12.561 13.166 13.754 14.324 14.878 4% 0.962 1.886 2.775 3.630 4.452 5.242 6.002 6.733 7.435 8.111 8.760 9.385 9.986 10.563 11.118 11.652 12.166 12.659 13.134 13.590 Interest rates) 5% 6% 0.952 0.943 1.859 1.833 2.723 2.673 3.546 3.465 4.329 4.212 5.076 4.917 5.786 5.582 6.463 6.210 7.108 6.802 7.722 7.360 8.306 7.887 8.863 8.384 9.394 8.853 9.899 9.295 10.380 9.712 10.838 10.106 11.274 10.477 11.690 10.828 12.085 11.158 12.462 11.470 7% 0.935 1.808 2.624 3.387 4.100 4.767 5.389 5.971 6.515 7.024 7.499 7.943 8.358 8.745 9.108 9.447 9.763 10.059 10.336 10.594 8% 0.926 1.783 2.577 3.312 3.993 4.623 5.206 5.747 6.247 6.710 7.139 7.536 7.904 8.244 8.559 8.851 9.122 9.372 9.604 9.818 4.486 5.033 5.535 5.995 6.418 6.805 7.161 7.487 7.786 8.061 10% 0.909 1.736 2.487 3.170 3.791 4.355 4.868 5.335 5.759 6.145 6.495 6.814 7.103 7.367 7.606 7.824 8.022 8.201 8.365 8.514 8.313 8.544 8.756 8.950 9.129 Period s(n) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11% 0.901 1.713 2.444 3.102 3.696 4.231 4.712 5.146 5.537 5.889 12% 0.893 1.690 2.402 3.037 3.605 4.111 4.564 4.968 5.328 5.650 5.938 6.194 6.424 6.628 6.811 6.974 7.120 7.250 7.366 7.469 13% 0.885 1.668 2.361 2.974 3.517 3.998 4.423 4.799 5.132 5.426 5.687 5.918 6.122 6.302 6.462 6.604 6.729 6.840 6.938 7.025 14% 0.877 1.647 2.322 2.914 3.433 3.889 4.288 4.639 4.946 5.216 5.453 5.660 5.842 6.002 6.142 6.265 6.373 6.467 6.550 6.623 Interest rates (0) 15% 16% 0.870 0.862 1.626 1.605 2.283 2.246 2.855 2.798 3.352 3.274 3.784 3.685 4.160 4.039 4.487 4.344 4.772 4.607 5.019 4.833 5.234 5.029 5.421 5.197 5.583 5.342 5.724 5.468 5.847 5.575 5.954 5.668 6.047 5.749 6.128 5.818 6.198 5.877 6.259 5.929 17% 0.855 1.585 2.210 2.743 3.199 3.589 3.922 4.207 4.451 4.659 4.836 4.988 5.118 5.229 5.324 5.405 5.475 5.534 5.584 5.628 18% 0.847 1.566 2.174 2.690 3.127 3.498 3.812 4.078 4.303 4.494 4.656 7.793 4.910 5.008 5.092 5.162 5.222 5.273 5.316 5.353 19% 0.840 1.547 2.140 2.639 3.058 3.410 3.706 3.954 4.163 4.339 20% 0.833 1.528 2.106 2.589 2.991 3.326 3.605 3.837 4.031 4.192 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 6.207 6.492 6.750 6.982 7.191 7.379 7.549 7.702 7.839 7.963 4.486 4.611 4.715 4.802 4.876 4.938 4.990 5.033 5.070 5.101 4.327 4.439 4.533 4.611 4.675 4.730 4.775 4.812 4.843 4.870 z Statistic Table (extract) z 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.09 0.0 0.0000 0.0040 0.0080 0.0120 0.0160 0.0199 0.0239 0.0279 0.0319 0.0359 0.1 0.0398 0.0438 0.0478 0.0517 0.0557 0.0596 0.0636 0.0675 0.0714 0.0753 0.2 0.0793 0.0832 0.0871 0.0910 0.0948 0.0987 0.1026 0.1064 0.1103 0.1141 0.3 0.1179 0.1217 0.1255 0.1293 0.1331 0.1368 0.1406 0.1443 0.1480 0.1517 0.4 0.1554 0.1591 0.1628 0.1664 0.1700 0.1736 0.1772 0.1808 0.1844 0.1879 0.5 0.1915 0.1950 0.1985 0.2019 0.2054 0.2088 0.2123 0.2157 0.2190 0.2224 0.6 0.2257 0.2291 0.2324 0.2357 0.2389 0.2422 0.2454 0.2486 0.2517 0.2549 0.7 0.2580 0.2611 0.2642 0.2673 0.2704 0.2734 0.2764 0.2794 0.2823 0.2852 0.8 0.2881 0.2910 0.2939 0.2967 0.2995 0.3023 0.3051 0.3078 0.3106 0.3133 0.9 0.3159 0.3186 0.3212 0.3238 0.3264 0.3289 0.3315 0.3340 0.3365 0.3389 1.0 0.3413 0.3438 0.3461 0.3485 0.3508 0.3531 0.3554 0.3577 0.3599 0.3621