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Shao Industries is considering a proposed project for its capital budget. The company estimates the project's NPV is $12 million. This estimate assumes that the

  1. Shao Industries is considering a proposed project for its capital budget. The company estimates the project's NPV is $12 million. This estimate assumes that the economy and market conditions will be average over the next few years. The company's CFO, however, forecasts there is only a 50% chance that the economy will be average. Recognizing this uncertainty, she has also performed the following scenario analysis:

Economic Scenario

Probability of Outcome

NPV

Recession

0.05

-$48 million

Below average

0.20

-28 million

Average

0.50

12 million

Above average

0.20

20 million

Boom

0.05

30 million

  1. What are the project's expected NPV, standard deviation, and coefficient of variation?

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