Show all work and state any assumptions that you feel are necessary in building your simulation model. Please submit a single file containing 3 separate worksheets titled "Question 1", "Question 2", "Question 3", and "Question #4", respectively. Base all your simulation runs based on 5000 trials. For each application, embed/copy any relevant Forecast Chart(s) within your spreadsheet including displaying all relevant statistics using "Split View".

Question #1

Suppose that someone offers you a job during the summer at a casino in Las Vegas with the following 2 options. You can either earn $180.00 per night working behind a change counter, or you can work as a welcoming host. If the latter is chosen (i.e., a welcoming host), your earnings potential are based on the number of patrons frequenting the casino each night. You can make $220.00 in tips on a busy night, $180.00 in tips on a normal night, and $120.00 in tips on a slow night. The probabilities of a busy, normal, and slow nights are, respectively, 0.3, 0.4, and 0.3.

Develop a simulation model in Crystal Ball Which to determine which option maximizes your long run average nightly earnings assuming you work the exact same hours under either option. Use 5000 runs.

Show all work related to your answers including copying the forecast charts within your spreadsheet, and the display of all relevant statistics (use the "split view" option).

Question #2:

Consider the following game. I'll give you a single 6-sided die to roll. If you toss a 1, I'll give you $1.00, if you toss a 2, I'll give you $2.00, etc. In other words, your earning per toss is based on the face of the die. However, this game is not free to play. Each toss will cost you $3.00 to play.

Develop a simulation model to simulate this event using 5000 plays (i.e., runs). Show all work related to your answers including copying the forecast charts within your spreadsheet, and the display of all relevant statistics (use the "split view" option). Should you play this game based on your results? Explain.

Question #3:

A handyman specializes in fixing plumbing and electrical problems. Assume that 40% of the service calls that he gets relate to electrical problems, while 60% of the service calls relate to plumbing problems. On average, the time it takes to fix an electrical problem can range between 15 and 45 minutes based on how complex the issue is. Moreover, the time it takes to to fix a plumbing problem can take a minimum of 15 minutes and a maximum of 60 minutes, where 30 minutes is the most likely completion time.

Use Crystal Ball to develop a simulation model to find the average time it takes the handyman to fix a given service call. Use 5000 runs. What is the probability that it will take the handyman more than 45 minutes to a complete a service call?

Show all work related to your answers including copying the forecast charts within your spreadsheet, and the display of all relevant statistics (use the "split view" option)