Show your responses on the answer sheet provided. Hand in only the answer sheet with your responses.

Fill in the Blanks in the table $(1-4)$

The Smoothed Average in period $6$

The Forecast in period $10$

The demand in period $11$

The Trend in period $14$

Find the Error in Period $20.$

Using the trend adjusted model above, with the alpha and beta values provided, develop a forecast for period $28.$

Using the data in the model, develop a six period moving average for period $26.$

Using the data in the model, develop a forecast for period $27$ using a weighted moving average model with weights of $0\mathrm{.}5,0\mathrm{.}2,0\mathrm{.}2,0\mathrm{.}1($with the first weight on the most recent data$).$

Develop a tracking signal, based on periods $13$ through $16.$

Based on your tracking signal, the model appears to track the data:

A$.$ poorly

B$.$ okay

C$.$ Indicates nothing about the models tracking.,

Calculate a bias based on periods $16$ to $20.$

Does your bias indicate the model tends to:

A$.$ Over$-$estimate

B$.$ Under$-$Estimate.

C$.$ No bias found.

The Delphi Approach is an example of what type of forecasting Model?

A$.$ Long Range

B$.$ Qualitative

C$.$ Time Series

D$.$ More than one of the above.

Which of the following is the least useful sales forecasting model to use when sales are decreasing?

A$.$ Trend adjusted exponential smoothing $(=0\mathrm{.}3$

B$.$ Simble mean $($arithmetic average$)$

Text Predirtions: an

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