Simply put, this unit is about demographics or the study of human populations. That might not sound very exciting, but everything, really everything, can be better understood if we include demographics in our inquiry. Think about it: we defined geography as the study of the environment, the people, and how they interact. Demography is right there in our definition of geography!

Have you or would you ever crowd surf?

Demographers study statistics relating to populations. Some Demographers study birth, death, and migration rates. Then, they investigate what causes these rates to change and the implications of those changes. Demographics can be studied from a micro level (how and why the population of your school is changing) to a macro level (where will the refugees from a war-torn country like Syria go?).

Demography starts with some pretty basic numbers. Birth rates (the number of births in a given area per 1000 people) and death rates (the number of deaths in a given area per 1000 people) together give us the natural increase rate. The natural increase rate is calculated by subtracting the death rate from the birth rate. If this number is positive (more births than deaths), we have a positive increase rate and the population is growing. If it is a negative number (more deaths than births), the population is shrinking or in decline. Japan has a negative or declining population rate. What could the challenges be of a declining population?

Other important statistics for demographers to record is the movement of populations. The immigration rate (the number of people moving into a country per 1000 people) and emigration rate (the number of people moving out of a country per 1000 people) give us the net migration rate. Net migration is calculated by subtracting the emigration rate from the immigration rate. Canada has policies to encourage immigration so we have a positive net migration.

A combination of the natural increase and the net migration rates give us the population growth rate.

Canada in 2014

Birth Rate 10.9/1 000 people Death Rate 7.2/1 000 people Natural Increase Rate (birth death) 10.9 7.2 = 3.7/1000 or rounded to 0.4%

Immigration Rate 7.5/1000 people Emigration Rate 1.5/1000 people Net Migration Rate (immigration emigration) 7.5 1.5 = 6/1000 or 0.6%

Population Growth Rate 4/1000 + 6/1000 = 10/1000 or 1.0%

What does a population growth rate mean? According to United States Census Bureau in 2015, Canada has a population growth rate of 0.8, Germany -0.2 and Zimbabwe 2.2.

If we use these numbers, their usefulness should become much clearer!

Changing Populations: Doubling Time

We know the population of the planet is growing. The speed at which our population is growing is almost more important that how big it gets. If we know the speed of population change (growing or shrinking populations), we can put plans in place to address the needs of the communities where the change is happening.

To calculate the amount of time it will take for a population to double, you use the Rule of 70. The Rule of 70 occurs when you divide 70 by the population growth rate and this provides an estimate of how many years it will take a country to double its population.

70/population growth rate Canada 70/0.8 = 87.5 years Zimbabwe 70/2.2 = 45.5 years

Germany has a declining population (-0.2), so unless birth or immigration rates begin to increase, it cannot have a doubling time.

Canada has 87 years to plan and put infrastructure in place for our doubling population. This is a manageable situation. But for Zimbabwe, doubling in 45 years is a crisis. They have little chance of preparing for a larger population. Year to year, they are striving to just keep up with the ever growing population. Preparing for the future is not really an option.

So what can you infer if you know these rates? If a population is growing, likely more space in daycares and schools, as well as housing, will be needed. If the population is getting older, hospital services will be needed as well. While this is a very simplistic example, you can see how knowing the way that your population is changing will allow for planning for a socially, economically, and environmentally sustainable future.

Typical of a rich country, Sweden has low birth and death rates.

You may have also noticed that these numbers are presented in rates, not numbers. The reasons demographers use rates and not numbers is that countries have very different total populations.

For example:

200 people in Country A have a Mercedes Benz. 200,000 people in County B have a Mercedes Benz.	Not knowing anything else about these two countries, this information is of very limited value. You cannot infer anything about either country without knowing the population as well.
20% of New Zealand has a disease. 20% of China has a disease.	Here, using the rate (%), you can see that these countries are equally healthy 1 in 5 people have a disease.

When any numerical data is presented (in numbers or in rates), it is critical that you look to see if they have come from a reliable source and that they are current.

In this unit, you will use the geographic thinking concept of Patterns and Trends as you study our Canadian population. You will see that understanding the connections between demographics, our economy, international relations, and our environment is critical to creating our most sustainable way forward. The patterns and trends we see in these connections can inform how we build our society for the next generation.

Student Response Sheet Use this sheet to add your predictions, observations, and analysis. Use these notes to complete your written analysis which should be approximately a full page in length with paragraphs that identify the topic, observable patterns, and potential reasons for these patterns.

3 Predict: Briefly explain which basemap provides the best prediction that shows population distribution in Canada? Your prediction 4 Predict: Which of Canadas Landform Regions are going to be highly populated? Which of Canadas Landform Regions is going to be sparsely populated? What factors lead you to believe this?

Your prediction 8 Observe: Where is Canadas population concentrated? Make observations of geographic areas using the bookmarks. Your Observations 9 Observe: Total Population and Population Density Why do some areas have a high population but a low population density? Where are the areas of highest population? Lowest population? Where are the areas of highest population density? Lowest population density? Use the bookmarks to make your observations.

Your Observations 10 Turn on this layer and observe where populations have been growing and where populations are shrinking. Your Observations 11 Compare the layers Canada Total Population 2011 and Canada Population Density 2011 by checking and unchecking the boxes. Your Comparisons 12 Your Community: Add another bookmark, your community.

Observe: What is the population of your community? Is your community growing or shrinking? Analyze: Examine whether your community is growing or shrinking. What economic activities are causing this to occur? Your observations & analysis 13 Observe: What patterns are observable of populated areas in Canada as a whole? What areas are lacking populated places? Is this surprising?

Your Observations 15 What patterns are observable with the Density Analysis Tool? Your Observations 18 Observe: After performing the following Buffer Analysis, what can be observed about major cities in Canada?

How is their distribution related to each other? The United States? Natural Resources? Your Observations 19 Complete the map and submit the link and your written observations of the 5 bookmarked regions as well as observations of Canada as a whole. There has been many areas where you could make observations of patterens in Canadas population.

Identify areas where you observe linear, clusttered and dispersed patterns. Where is Canadas highest population density? Where is the least populated areas? What factors could explain these patterns?

Your written analysis should be approximately a full page in length with paragraphs that identify the topic, observable patterns, and potential reasons for these patterns.