Singapore is known to be a leading centre for ship repair, and its other key activities include building of marine vessels and offshore structures, vessel design and engineering and marine equipment and services. You have just joined a local bank as an analyst covering the international trade desk. You have been tasked to provide a forecast of vessel tonnage up to the year end of 2021.

Your supervisor has provided you with the monthly gross tonnage from July 2000 to June 2020. Your forecasted result will provide insights into the economic pulse of this sector which will have implications on the line of credit provided to businesses in this sector.

DateGross Tonnage

Jul-00133227

Aug-00126257

Sep-00131271

Oct-00134563

Nov-00143056

Dec-00134399

Jan-01144509

Feb-01138239

Mar-01138655

Apr-01146282

May-01130761

Jun-01135339

Jul-01134048

Aug-01118616

Sep-01138899

Oct-01140783

Nov-01139586

Dec-01139879

Jan-02143811

Feb-02146837

Mar-02142540

Apr-02153570

May-02144640

Jun-02146792

Jul-02141402.56

Aug-02126534.16

Sep-02145984.7

Oct-02148503.51

Nov-02145109.27

Dec-02143068.11

Jan-03147564.07

Feb-03145487.73

Mar-03136321.65

Apr-03147411.62

May-03142361.69

Jun-03146644.39

Jul-03151023.66

Aug-03133559.19

Sep-03151059.26

Oct-03145837.28

Nov-03140449.88

Dec-03145601.92

Jan-04148768.69

Feb-04155641.07

Mar-04140520.95

Apr-04144077.24

May-04144976.83

Jun-04145327.09

Jul-04144975.28

Aug-04137142.7

Sep-04155772.35

Oct-04149073.21

Nov-04151821.73

Dec-04154313.99

Jan-05154250.63

Feb-05153978.58

Mar-05157117.4

Apr-05159350.75

May-05156085.45

Jun-05161064.98

Jul-05162706.05

Aug-05139071.34

Sep-05166691.33

Oct-05160337.73

Nov-05167542.68

Dec-05168695.25

Jan-06170457.44

Feb-06178943.35

Mar-06168043.99

Apr-06180310.17

May-06173459.19

Jun-06177461.94

Jul-06181630.3

Aug-06167960.57

Sep-06192447.32

Oct-06186215.04

Nov-06196247.43

Dec-06192340.58

Jan-07188374.59

Feb-07201399.82

Mar-07200406.19

Apr-07195506.4

May-07195323.67

Jun-07200700

Jul-07202630.65

Aug-07183601.05

Sep-07217519.68

Oct-07206075.17

Nov-07210986.81

Dec-07217278.26

Jan-08222488.33

Feb-08222349.5

Mar-08225966.53

Apr-08232799.6

May-08224553.65

Jun-08230904.32

Jul-08242031.4

Aug-08224375.57

Sep-08257118.48

Oct-08259126.41

Nov-08259285.46

Dec-08244537.6

Jan-09251694.13

Feb-09263919.19

Mar-09247080.34

Apr-09253371.61

May-09255566

Jun-09255904.14

Jul-09261567.49

Aug-09234751.99

Sep-09273110.79

Oct-09260906.54

Nov-09283930.25

Dec-09262757.02

Jan-10275826.54

Feb-10276036.91

Mar-10275171.39

Apr-10280339.88

May-10268596.07

Jun-10280258.23

Jul-10279596.45

Aug-10270675.65

Sep-10295854.61

Oct-10284813.85

Nov-10293829.31

Dec-10294977.42

Jan-11303447.1

Feb-11294984.75

Mar-11295701.37

Apr-11313730.22

May-11308718.92

Jun-11314726.28

Jul-11326837.34

Aug-11297525

Sep-11341842.84

Oct-11316164.55

Nov-11332450.23

Dec-11319224.16

Jan-12334330.42

Feb-12344481.62

Mar-12329336.59

Apr-12355164.21

May-12340253.27

Jun-12354482.58

Jul-12359006.35

Aug-12324143.39

Sep-12371570.41

Oct-12355317.85

Nov-12377353.64

Dec-12357392.13

Jan-13361856.39

Feb-13364166.27

Mar-13355375.63

Apr-13367804.38

May-13367282.04

Jun-13361390.74

Jul-13373686.26

Aug-13348541.35

Sep-13371705.1

Oct-13374946.77

Nov-13390899.3

Dec-13375463.44

Jan-14418303.78

Feb-14400401.12

Mar-14398071.93

Apr-14397032.89

May-14391995.54

Jun-14397782.09

Jul-14425882.15

Aug-14364649.48

Sep-14414262.93

Oct-14390134.61

Nov-14414814.07

Dec-14381586.55

Jan-15416275.53

Feb-15415197.3

Mar-15418556.74

Apr-15406591.78

May-15428474.72

Jun-15406212.76

Jul-15432793.94

Aug-15398707.7

Sep-15433929.5

Oct-15446148.14

Nov-15435852.39

Dec-15426702.67

Jan-16433117.74

Feb-16471661.94

Mar-16429286.18

Apr-16445325.41

May-16443366.98

Jun-16457166.51

Jul-16464781.76

Aug-16420654.08

Sep-16466893.49

Oct-16470816

Nov-16476038.74

Dec-16458209.43

Jan-17462655.97

Feb-17470093.96

Mar-17441697.88

Apr-17450861.77

May-17462725.5

Jun-17459021.87

Jul-17484593.99

Aug-17439110.09

Sep-17489977.07

Oct-17472017.2

Nov-17500808.78

Dec-17480909.93

Jan-18493418.29

Feb-18486805.71

Mar-18486461.67

Apr-18480756.98

May-18487908.86

Jun-18495412.14

Jul-18501946.26

Aug-18453809.89

Sep-18492348.13

Oct-18498312.24

Nov-18476679.73

Dec-18472438.89

Jan-19482997.45

Feb-19468374.98

Mar-19487642.6

Apr-19496066.37

May-19484582.31

Jun-19489632.6

Jul-19513568.5

Aug-19462100.63

Sep-19477542.59

Oct-19479726.45

Nov-19495694.676

Dec-19478453.605

Jan-20507073.152

Feb-20496055.89

Mar-20509731.07

Apr-20530484.847

May-20519189.507

Jun-20544860.666

(a) Recommend an appropriate time series model to forecast the monthly gross tonnage up to December 2021 with justifications on the periods (i.e. whether you use all the data provided or only a part of it) and the forecasting model you decide to use. (You are not required to perform any forecasting here). (20 marks)

(b) Determine the monthly forecast for gross tonnage up to December 2021. Show the steps in calculating the forecast. (20 marks)