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SITUATION. A truth serum given to a suspect is known to be 90% reliable when the person is guilty and 99% reliable when the person
SITUATION. A truth serum given to a suspect is known to be 90% reliable when the person is guilty and 99% reliable when the person is innocent. In other words, 10% of the guilty are judged innocent by the serum and 1% of the innocent are judged guilty. If the suspect was selected from a group of suspects of which only 5% have ever committed a crime, and the serum indicates that he is guilty, what is the probability that he is innocent
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