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Some electronic devices are better used than new. The failure rate is higher when they are new than when they are six months old. For

Some electronic devices are better used than new. The failure rate is higher when they are new than when they are six months old. For example, half of the personal music players sold by a particular brand have a flaw. If the player has the flaw, it dies in the first six months. If it does not have this flaw, then only 15% fail in the first six months. Yours dies after you had it for three months. What are the chances that it has this flaw?

The probability that it has the flaw is?

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